就我的看法，中间大概有十来天，因为错误的估计的病毒的威力和为了即将到来的春节稳定，官方机构没有第一时间警告（其实也不太对，武汉市卫健委在12月底在网站曾经发过一个不明肺炎的公开通告，但是这种网站没人看，同时电视台 报纸并没有报道）
但是美国人措手不及，和中国的延误没有任何关系
他们知道疫情很严重，那个时候川普的商务部长还很开心说疫情能够促使制造业更快地回流到美国
他们那个时候看疫情就像看非洲那些耸人听闻的病毒一样，一个落后的医疗系统，一个低下无能的行政机构，发生什么可怕的传染都不奇怪。疫情是很可怕，可是和他们没有任何关系，也不会对他们产生任何影响，就像Ebola一样，可怕但是对他们没关系。
※ 引述《turbomons (Τ/taʊ/)》之铭言：
: ※ 引述《mooto (退出会比较好, 就退出)》之铭言：
: : 这种选举语言看看就好
: : 中国讲什么美国都照单全收的话 情报网应该先收了
: : 再来三只忠犬台日韩都没回报吗
: : 如果真的是被中国骗了 台湾到底在嗨什么 表示人家根本不把你话当一回事
: : 实际上美国早早就对中国封关了
: : 这次破口是从欧洲来的 连老司机台湾都中招
: : 阿川怎么不敢说 都是被欧洲骗惹
: : 川普如果有把拯救美国经济的1%认真放在防疫上 现在根本不会爆炸阿
: 没错
: 而且美国情报早在一月就已经开始持续不断提出警告
: 有篇华盛顿邮报的报导蛮详细的
: https://reurl.cc/qdgaAy
: U.S. intelligence reports from January and February warned about
: a likely pandemic
: By
: Shane Harris,
: Greg Miller,
: Josh Dawsey and Ellen Nakashima
: March 21, 2020 at 8:10 a.m. GMT+8
: U.S. intelligence agencies were issuing ominous, classified warnings in
: January and February about the global danger posed by the coronavirus while
: President Trump and lawmakers played down the threat and failed to take
: action that might have slowed the spread of the pathogen, according to U.S.
: officials familiar with spy agency reporting.
: The intelligence reports didn’t predict when the virus might land on U.S.
: shores or recommend particular steps that public health officials should
: take, issues outside the purview of the intelligence agencies. But they did
: track the spread of the virus in China, and later in other countries, and
: warned that Chinese officials appeared to be minimizing the severity of the
: outbreak.
: Taken together, the reports and warnings painted an early picture of a virus
: that showed the characteristics of a globe-encircling pandemic that could
: require governments to take swift actions to contain it. But despite that
: constant flow of reporting, Trump continued publicly and privately to play
: down the threat the virus posed to Americans. Lawmakers, too, did not grapple
: with the virus in earnest until this month, as officials scrambled to keep
: citizens in their homes and hospitals braced for a surge in patients
: suffering from covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.
: Intelligence agencies “have been warning on this since January,” said a
: U.S. official who had access to intelligence reporting that was disseminated
: to members of Congress and their staffs as well as to officials in the Trump
: administration, and who, along with others, spoke on the condition of
: anonymity to describe sensitive information.
: “Donald Trump may not have been expecting this, but a lot of other people in
: the government were — they just couldn’t get him to do anything about it,”
: this official said. “The system was blinking red.”
: Spokespeople for the CIA and the Office of the Director of National
: Intelligence declined to comment, and a White House spokesman rebutted
: criticism of Trump’s response.
: “President Trump has taken historic, aggressive measures to protect the
: health, wealth and safety of the American people — and did so, while the
: media and Democrats chose to only focus on the stupid politics of a sham
: illegitimate impeachment,” Hogan Gidley said in a statement. “It’s more
: than disgusting, despicable and disgraceful for cowardly unnamed sources to
: attempt to rewrite history — it’s a clear threat to this great country.”
: Public health experts have criticized China for being slow to respond to the
: coronavirus outbreak, which originated in Wuhan, and have said precious time
: was lost in the effort to slow the spread. At a White House briefing Friday,
: Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said officials had been alerted
: to the initial reports of the virus by discussions that the director of the
: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had with Chinese colleagues on
: Jan. 3.
: The warnings from U.S. intelligence agencies increased in volume toward the
: end of January and into early February, said officials familiar with the
: reports. By then, a majority of the intelligence reporting included in daily
: briefing papers and digests from the Office of the Director of National
: Intelligence and the CIA was about covid-19, said officials who have read the
: reports.
: The surge in warnings coincided with a move by Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) to
: sell dozens of stocks worth between $628,033 and $1.72 million. As chairman
: of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Burr was privy to virtually all of the
: highly classified reporting on the coronavirus. Burr issued a statement
: Friday defending his sell-off, saying he sold based entirely on publicly
: available information, and he called for the Senate Ethics Committee to
: investigate.
: A key task for analysts during disease outbreaks is to determine whether
: foreign officials are trying to minimize the effects of an outbreak or take
: steps to hide a public health crisis, according to current and former
: officials familiar with the process.
: At the State Department, personnel had been nervously tracking early reports
: about the virus. One official noted that it was discussed at a meeting in the
: third week of January, around the time that cable traffic showed that U.S.
: diplomats in Wuhan were being brought home on chartered planes — a sign that
: the public health risk was significant. A colleague at the White House
: mentioned how concerned he was about the transmissibility of the virus.
: “In January, there was obviously a lot of chatter,” the official said.
: Inside the White House, Trump’s advisers struggled to get him to take the
: virus seriously, according to multiple officials with knowledge of meetings
: among those advisers and with the president.
: Azar couldn’t get through to Trump to speak with him about the virus until
: Jan. 18, according to two senior administration officials. When he reached
: Trump by phone, the president interjected to ask about vaping and when
: flavored vaping products would be back on the market, the senior
: administration officials said.
: On Jan. 27, White House aides huddled with then-acting chief of staff Mick
: Mulvaney in his office, trying to get senior officials to pay more attention
: to the virus, according to people briefed on the meeting. Joe Grogan, the
: head of the White House Domestic Policy Council, argued that the
: administration needed to take the virus seriously or it could cost the
: president his reelection, and that dealing with the virus was likely to
: dominate life in the United States for many months.
: Mulvaney then began convening more regular meetings. In early briefings,
: however, officials said Trump was dismissive because he did not believe that
: the virus had spread widely throughout the United States
: By early February, Grogan and others worried that there weren’t enough tests
: to determine the rate of infection, according to people who spoke directly to
: Grogan. Other officials, including Matthew Pottinger, the president’s deputy
: national security adviser, began calling for a more forceful response,
: according to people briefed on White House meetings.
: But Trump resisted and continued to assure Americans that the coronavirus
: would never run rampant as it had in other countries.
: “I think it’s going to work out fine,” Trump said on Feb. 19. “I think
: when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very negative
: effect on that and that type of a virus.”
: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA,” Trump tweeted five
: days later. “Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
: But earlier that month, a senior official in the Department of Health and
: Human Services delivered a starkly different message to the Senate
: Intelligence Committee, in a classified briefing that four U.S. officials
: said covered the coronavirus and its global health implications. The House
: Intelligence Committee received a similar briefing.
: Robert Kadlec, the assistant secretary for preparedness and response — who
: was joined by intelligence officials, including from the CIA — told
: committee members that the virus posed a “serious” threat, one of those
: officials said.
: Kadlec didn’t provide specific recommendations, but he said that to get
: ahead of the virus and blunt its effects, Americans would need to take
: actions that could disrupt their daily lives, the official said. “It was
: very alarming.”
: Trump’s insistence on the contrary seemed to rest in his relationship with
: China’s President Xi Jingping, whom Trump believed was providing him with
: reliable information about how the virus was spreading in China, despite
: reports from intelligence agencies that Chinese officials were not being
: candid about the true scale of the crisis.
: Some of Trump’s advisers told him that Beijing was not providing accurate
: numbers of people who were infected or who had died, according to
: administration officials. Rather than press China to be more forthcoming,
: Trump publicly praised its response.
: “China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus,” Trump
: tweeted Jan. 24. “The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and
: transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the
: American People, I want to thank President Xi!”
: Some of Trump’s advisers encouraged him to be tougher on China over its
: decision not to allow teams from the CDC into the country, administration
: officials said.
: In one February meeting, the president said that if he struck a tougher tone
: against Xi, the Chinese would be less willing to give the Americans
: information about how they were tackling the outbreak.
: Trump on Feb. 3 banned foreigners who had been in China in the previous 14
: days from entering the United States, a step he often credits for helping to
: protect Americans against the virus. He has also said publicly that the
: Chinese weren’t honest about the effects of the virus. But that travel ban
: wasn’t accompanied by additional significant steps to prepare for when the
: virus eventually infected people in the United States in great numbers.
: As the disease spread beyond China, U.S. spy agencies tracked outbreaks in
: Iran, South Korea, Taiwan, Italy and elsewhere in Europe, the officials
: familiar with those reports said. The majority of the information came from
: public sources, including news reports and official statements, but a
: significant portion also came from classified intelligence sources. As new
: cases popped up, the volume of reporting spiked.
: As the first cases of infection were confirmed in the United States, Trump
: continued to insist that the risk to Americans was small.
: “I think the virus is going to be — it’s going to be fine,” he said on
: Feb. 10.
: “We have a very small number of people in the country, right now, with it,”
: he said four days later. “It’s like around 12. Many of them are getting
: better. Some are fully recovered already. So we’re in very good shape.”
: On Feb. 25, Nancy Messonnier, a senior CDC official, sounded perhaps the most
: significant public alarm to that point, when she told reporters that the
: coronavirus was likely to spread within communities in the United States and
: that disruptions to daily life could be “severe.” Trump called Azar on his
: way back from a trip to India and complained that Messonnier was scaring the
: stock markets, according to two senior administration officials.
: Trump eventually changed his tone after being shown statistical models about
: the spread of the virus from other countries and hearing directly from
: Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, as
: well as from chief executives last week rattled by a plunge in the stock
: market, said people - familiar with Trump’s conversations.
: But by then, the signs pointing to a major outbreak in the United States were
: everywhere.
: 简单说
: 美国情报机关从一月以来就一直持续发出警告
: 分发情报对象是国会议员、相关部门、白宫官员
: 最早的初步警报是在1月3日星期五的白宫简报会
: 由卫生与公共服务部长 Alex Azar 所提出
: 从这时开始国家情报局与中央情报局的大多数情报都是关于covid-19的
: 这时候还出现了一个小插曲
: 随着警告激增，参议员 Richard Burr 大量抛售持股
: 还为此替自己辩护全是根据公开信息
: 在一月第三周的一次会议上讨论到
: 美国驻武汉的外交官正乘包机返国
: 这表明目前公共健康危机面临巨大风险
: 此时白宫顾问们正努力让川普认真看待这种病毒
: 但一直到1月18日前
: 卫生部长Alex Azar都没法让川普跟他正式讨论这个病毒
: 1月27日白宫幕僚长 Mick Mulvaney
: 持续召开更多的例行会议
: 试图让高阶官员重视这个病毒
: 白宫国内政策委员会负责人 Joe Grogan 表示
: 政府必须认真面对这种病毒否则将影响川普连任
: 并且这疫情将可能持续数个月之久
: 2月初
: 川普的国家安全副顾问 Matthew Pottinger 与相关官员
: 呼吁该采取更强力的应对措施
: 2月19日
: 川普作出以下发言
: “I think when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very
: negative effect on that and that type of a virus.”
: 2月24日
: 川普推特
: “Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
: 在此之前
: 负责防灾预备工作的助理秘书 Robert Kadlec 提出
: 该病毒将造成严重威胁
: 若要钝化威胁美国人要采取破坏日常生活的行动
: 此时川普依然坚持与中国领导习主席的关系
: 尽管情报机关报告已经指出中国官员对真相并不坦承
: 川普的顾问向川普提醒北京没有提供准确的感染者与死亡人数
: 1月24日
: 川普推特
: “The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It
: will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I
: want to thank President Xi!”
: 接着因为中国不允许美国CDC进入中国
: 川普顾问建议川普对中国采取更强硬态度
: 2月3日川普宣布对中国的入境禁令
: 随着疫情蔓延到中国境外
: 美国第一批感染病例确诊
: 情报机关发布越来越多的警告
: 川普依然觉得美国人的风险很小
: 2月10日
: 川普:“I think the virus is going to be — it’s going to be fine,”
: 2月25日
: CDC高级官员 Nancy Messonnier
: 警告病毒很可能造成社区传播
: 将严重破坏日常生活
: 川普则抱怨Nancy Messonnier吓坏股市
: