※ 引述《iPenis (庶民iPenis)》之铭言：
: It’s Time to Talk About Taiwan
: https://reurl.cc/nVWWzd
: DEFENSE ONE 美国 Michael Hunzeker MARK CHRISTOPHER 2020/02/25
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两位作者都是学者，投书媒体
简单摘要：
美国对台湾和中国的政策一直都是以模拟两可的手法来牵制两岸
让两岸揣测美国会不会出手干预而不敢轻举妄动
但是近年来两岸的主张已经越来越明显强硬
台湾人的国家认同、选举结果都是在向中国表态
而原本期待KMT帮忙统战的中国
也在习近平上任后手段日益强硬
两岸的情势已经渐趋明朗，只有美国还在打迷糊仗
作者们认为，这种给自己预留后路的政策
只会让美国更难达成保持两岸现况不变的目的
无论是要表态协防台湾或是彻底放弃台湾
美国政府都应该仔细斟酌，拟定明确的立场
不能再摆荡不定、暧昧不明下去了。
**
作者并没有说美国政府该怎么选择，只是说当前两岸情势明朗化
美国的政策也到了认真选边站的时候，就这样
学者写的文章通常立论严谨，最好是仔细看过内文
不然就要仰赖译者的公正诚信
要马就写明只是摘要，要马就精确的逐字翻译
最好别写得像逐字稿实际却是主观摘要，降很危险
: Washington’s longstanding policy of strategic ambiguity is increasingly
: likely to inflame the kind of crisis it was meant to deter.
: In an interview with 60 Minutes on Sunday night, Democratic front-runner
: Bernie Sanders suggested that he might take military action to defend Taiwan
: if China attacks it. The implication is that a Sanders Administration would
: fundamentally transform America’s security policy toward Taiwan—a move that
: would surely cause hand-wringing in foreign policy circles from Washington to
: Beijing.
: 礼拜天对于民主党总统候选人桑德斯的60分钟访谈，桑德斯表示如果中国发动对台湾武力
: 进攻则美国应当协助保防。桑德斯意思将改变美国现有安全政策，并将引发北京的不满。
: At least in this instance, Sanders is right to shake things up. Washington’s
: longstanding policy of “strategic ambiguity” is increasingly likely to
: inflame the very kind of crisis that it was intended to deter. It’s time for
: Washington to re-evaluate, redefine and clarify its commitment to Taiwan.
: 至少在现在这种情况，桑德斯是正确的，华盛顿长期的模糊政策，事实上只会激起原本要
: 阻止的危机。
: Since the 1979 passage of the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States has had
: a legal obligation to sell Taiwan the arms it needs for self-defense. Yet the
: United States remained deliberately vague as to whether it might come to
: Taiwan’s aid in a cross-Strait conflict. The logic behind this one-foot-in,
: one-foot-out policy is that as long as the United States kept both sides
: guessing about the conditions under which it might intervene, it could deter
: both Taiwan from declaring independence and China from invading.
: 从1979年通过台湾关系法以来，美国附有法律义务销售台湾防卫性武器，但是对于是否
: 协助台湾于发生海峡战争的时候参与战争，仍保持着模糊的说词
: 美国保持这种模糊观点的优点是可以让双方臆测，使台湾猜测美国而不敢独立，
: 中国猜测美国是否介入而不敢武力犯台。
: Strategic ambiguity gave the United States flexibility, which made sense
: while the trajectory of China-Taiwan relations remained deeply uncertain. For
: generations, Taiwan’s ruling party—the KMT—aspired to unify Taiwan with
: China (albeit under KMT rule). Even after Taiwan’s transition to democracy,
: the KMT continued to favor pro-unification policies. As a result China, which
: long lacked the military power to take Taiwan by force, had reason to remain
: patient.
: 运用上述的模糊战略让美国对于台海局势保持灵活。
: 长期执政的国民党对于中台关系倾向统一，在政权移转后仍倾向统一。
: 而中国政府因长期军事仍无法武力攻台，至今仍保持着高度耐心。
: Recently though, uncertainty has given way to clarity on both sides of the
: Taiwan Strait. In China, clarity comes in the form of Xi Jinping.
: 最近台海局势随着习近平提出主张而明确化。
: Annexing Taiwan has been among China’s top priorities since Mao. But Xi
: Jinping, China’s strongest leader in generations, has gone a step further by
: pinning his own legitimacy to the issue. Xi has also overseen a major
: modernization of China’s military, swinging the military balance on the
: Taiwan question clearly in China’s favor. Nor is he proving particularly
: patient, as he repeatedly warns audiences at home and abroad that the Taiwan
: problem “should not be passed down generation after generation.”
: 并吞台湾的问题是从毛泽东以来中国政府心里的痛，最强领导人习近平上任后不断的
: 对着台湾人警告台湾问题不应当世代相传。
: In Taiwan, clarity comes from a growing sense of national identity. Public
: opinion polling suggests that more than half of the island’s population now
: identifies as exclusively Taiwanese. Identity tends to solidify with time,
: making it hard to believe that Taiwan will voluntarily submit to Chinese rule
: anytime soon.
: 但是台湾主流民意已经把自己当成"台湾人"，随着时间身分认同更加固定。
: 让中国统一台湾问题越来越困难，台湾人很难自愿的认为自己是中国人。
: This trend helps explain why Taiwanese voters handed independence-leaning
: President Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) a landslide
: victory last month. In doing so they sent China an unambiguous signal. Taiwan
: will no longer accept Beijing’s long preferred “one country, two systems”
: solution to the 71-year old standoff over the island’s status.
: 以上可以合理解释为什么倾向独立的蔡英文及民进党政府于上个月的选举获得压倒性
: 胜利。
: 而后蔡英文政府明确向北京发出不接受一国两制的讯号。
: It makes sense that Taiwanese voters don’t trust Chinese promises and
: assurances. They are all too aware that Xi has reinforced the Communist Party
: ’s role at the center of Chinese economic and political life, pulled back
: from market-based reforms, and ruthlessly crushed any perceived challenges to
: China’s territorial integrity. They have also watched the CCP round up
: millions of Uyghurs in Xinjiang and put them in reeducation camps, stonewall
: pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, and respond to the coronavirus outbreak
: with draconian quarantines and Orwellian propaganda. The recent election
: results, in which Tsai received more votes than any president in Taiwanese
: history, were a resounding rebuke of Beijing’s agenda.
: 台湾人民不信任中国政府是有道理可循，北京历年来对于新疆维吾尔、香港反送中等议题
: 处理，并且采用欧威尔式自我宣传。
: (指现代专制政权借由严厉执行政治宣传、监视、故意提供虚假资料、否认事实（双重思想
: ）和操纵过去（包括制造“非人”，意指把一个人过去的存在从公共记录和记忆中消除）
: 的政策以控制社会。) https://reurl.cc/VayyOR
: 都让蔡政府创下选票历史新高的原因。
引文太长以下恕删