https://goo.gl/UKgQ6y 节录
Great power disputes have the potential to wreak havoc throughout Asia, as
the Sino-Indian faceoff shows. From New Delhi’s perspective, China continues
to try to encircle it from the north, not only in Bhutan but also through the
Sino-Pakistan alliance, which links a growing and aggressive power to India’
s deadliest enemy, one that has nuclear weapons trained on India’s major
cities. With Chinese naval ships increasingly transiting the Indian Ocean,
India feels pressured on land and by sea, accounting in part for its forceful
response to the Chinese road-building scheme. Given its concerns over China’
s growth, New Delhi will only bristle at Chinese Minister Wang Yi’s
admonishment to “behave yourself and humbly retreat.”
中印对峙表明，大国争端有可能扰乱整个亚洲。从新德里的角度来看，中国持续在不丹并
通过中国-巴基斯坦联盟从北方对它进行包围。随着中国海军船只日益频繁地航经印度洋
，印度在陆上和海上都感到了压力，这是它对中国的修路计划作出强烈反应的部分原因。
由于对中国的发展壮大感到担忧，新德里只会以愤怒对待中国要求印军“老老实实地退出
去”的告诫。
Yet both countries also have a great deal to lose should they come to blows.
Not only would a conflict tarnish China’s reputation as a global leader but
anti-Chinese elements in Tibet and Xinjiang could also try to take advantage
of any fighting to push back against the harsh Chinese security presence in
their territories. As for India, another defeat by the better equipped
Chinese would not only be a national humiliation but would raise fears that
China’s ally Pakistan might stir up more trouble on their tense border, as
well as give China greater influence in countries near India, including
Bhutan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.
然而，两个国家一旦开战，双方都会损失惨重。冲突会损害中国作为全球领导者的声誉。
西藏和新疆独立分子也可以尝试利用任何战斗力度来抵御中国在其领土上的安全存在。
至于印度，又一次被装备更为精良的中国人打败将不仅是国家的耻辱，而且让人担心中国
的盟友巴基斯坦会在气氛紧张的印巴边界制造更多事端，并使中国在印度附近国家
——包括不丹、尼泊尔和斯里兰卡——拥有更大的影响力。
Although full-scale war is unlikely to break out in the Himalayas, a
protracted standoff raises the chance of an accident or miscalculation that
could cause an armed clash. Other nations, such as Russia or Japan, might
also get involved to show moral support for one side or the other, or to
possibly offer some type of material aid. As for the United States, there is
little, if any, role that it can play other than to encourage both sides to
settle their quarrel through diplomatic means.
虽然喜马拉雅地区不大可能爆发全面战争，但旷日持久的僵局会提高发生意外或误判，
从而酿成武装冲突的可能性。其他国家，如俄罗斯或日本，也可能会被牵扯进来，以向
某方表示道义上的支持，或者提供某种物质上的帮助。至于美国，除了鼓励双方通过
外交途径解决争端外，它发挥不了什么作用。
Doklam may be in one of the most isolated spots on earth, but it reflects one
aspect of Asia’s current “great game.” The region’s powerful states all
have disputes with each other that have lingered for decades, with little
resolution in sight. As they have become richer, thanks to globalization and
trade, often with each other, they have modernized their militaries, so as to
be able to lay credible claims on contested territory. Throw nationalism into
the mix, and the recipe for ongoing crisis is nearly complete. Even if Asia’
s military pot does not boil over, it will be set at a low boil for the
foreseeable future.
文章说，洞朗地区或许地处偏远，但它反映着亚洲当前“大博弈”的一个侧面。该地区的
各个大国彼此间都有延续几十年的争端，解决起来遥遥无期。得益于全球化和贸易，往往
是彼此间的贸易，它们日益富裕，同时也使军队现代化，从而能够对有争议领土提出理直
气壮的主权要求。在把民族主义加进来以后，当前危机的配方差不多完整了。即便亚洲的
军事大锅不沸腾到溢出来，它也会在可预见的未来保持微沸状态。