1.媒体来源: The Diplomat Magazine
2.完整新闻标题:The Real Reason the Xi-Ma Meeting Was Historic
副标：Ma Ying-jeou may be the last Taiwanese president to
embrace a “one China” mentality.
马将是台湾最后一个拥抱一中的总统
3.完整新闻内文:
Mr. Xi Jinping just met Mr. Ma Ying-jeou in Singapore,
an event many media members have praised as historic.
有很多媒体将马习会赞誉为历史性时刻
On one level, this is no doubt true; it is the first
meeting of the top leaders of Taiwan and China since the start
of the Chinese Civil War in 1945. However, the meeting had more
symbolic effects than actual results. It was not a meeting to
open a better relationship between the two sides. Actually, many
have predicted that cross-strait relations will turn hostile again
after Taiwan’s presidential election in January 2016, when the
more independence-minded Democratic Progressive Party will
likely come back to power.
某层面来说，这是对的……但是象征意义大于实际成果。这并不能开创两岸新
格局，实际上很多人预测等到2016总统大选后，随着独立思想的蔡上台，两岸
关系将会趋向敌对。
This was also not a meeting that will define the future trend
of bilateral relationship. While Xi is becoming more and more
powerful and will decide China’s future direction, Ma, on the other
hand, no longer represents Taiwan’s future orientation. Actually,
Taiwan will go in a quite different direction after his departure
from office in several months. If this meeting is historic, it is
for a different reason: it is a chance to say farewell to Ma, who
will most likely be the last president elected in Taiwan who still
has a “one-China” mentality. This meeting is a farewell to the old
tradition and paradigm of cross-Strait relations.
这次会面并不会定义两岸未来……马是一个即将卸任的总统。
如果这次会面是历史性时刻，那原因不一样，这是一个向台湾最后一个拥抱一
中思想总统说再见的机会。
The identity of the Taiwanese people is drifting. Many recent
public opinion surveys have indicated that fewer and fewer Taiwanese
view themselves as Chinese, and there is a major generation gap. The
surveys also indicated that the majority of people under 40 years old
consider themselves as only Taiwanese and are pro-independence. The
official name of Taiwan is the Republic of China (ROC), a name that
hearkens to the past and one indicating that the rivalry between
Beijing and Taipei is about who is the rightful government of China.
But this mentality will leave office with Ma.
台湾人的认同正在飘移，越来越多人觉得自己是台湾人，
越来越少人认为自己是中国人。
While Republic of China will remain the official name of Taiwan
and the current one-China constitution will still be kept for the
foreseeable future, any attempts to make changes on these in Taiwan
will meet fierce reactions from Beijing. However, people’s perceptions
and identity have changed. While Ma won’t be the last Kuomintang (KMT)
president in Taiwan’s democracy, the chance that Taiwanese voters will
choose a candidate with a one-China mentality and pro-unification
orientation will become smaller and smaller in the future. Education
and social narratives have played a powerful role in recent decades in
shifting Taiwan’s identity. The reason Ma and his party have become a
lame duck is because they have become out of touch, creating a major
perception gap between the KMT and the younger generations.
台湾的正式名称中华民国与一中宪法仍会在可预见到的未来继续存在，
想改变这两者都会激怒北京当局。马不是台湾最后一任总统，台湾人投票
给一中与统一趋向候选人的机会会越来越小……马及国民党会成为跛脚鸭
总统是因为不能触动年轻人的心。
For Xi Jinping, this meeting was the time to say farewell to
the past. He needs to prepare for facing a new Taiwan. Even the future
of the KMT will be quite different after Ma’s departure. In fact, the
KMT has already been experiencing a major transformation and becoming
more localized, evolving from the one-China doctrine to a more
inward-focused party. A good example is found in the campaign slogan
of the KMT’s 2016 presidential candidate Eric Chu: “One Taiwan: Taiwan
is Power.” In 2014, Chu replaced Ma as the chairman of the KMT after
this ruling party suffered a humiliating defeat in local elections.
There is no longer a market for the one-China and unification
narratives in Taiwan. Without realizing this reality, Beijing will
surely make mistakes in its future reactions with Taiwan. *[m
对习来说，这是会面是对过去说再见的时刻，他需要准备迎接新台湾，
就连国民党也会因为马的离开而变得不一样。事实上国民党正在本土化，
最佳例子就是朱的ONE TAIWAM口号…
While the identity of Taiwan is changing, there is still little
chance that Taiwan will gain independence from the mainland. Actually,
with China’s rising power, Taiwan’s options for such a move in the
geopolitical game are becoming more and more limited. Economically
Taiwan will be marginalized. Unfortunately globalization spells as
China-ization for Taiwan. The emergence of the new Taiwanese identity
can also be seen as a local resistance to the development of
China-ization. As Taiwan has been experiencing an identity crisis
there has been a lack of consensus and high levels of political
partisanship. This has all greatly reduced Taiwan’s future
competitiveness, making its future outlook quite bleak. This is
probably the sad destiny of the island.
虽然台湾人认同的板块飘移，但是仍仅有微小的机会可以独立。
在中国崛起下，台湾在地缘政治游戏的选择越来越小。经济上台湾会被边缘化。
不幸的，全球化对台湾来说是中国化，台湾人认同的兴起被视为是中国化的本
土阻力。正当台湾人认同经历危机，但缺乏共识与高水平的政党，这削弱的未来
的竞争力。
For Ma, this meeting was a farewell to his presidency. He may
consider the stability of cross-strait relations as his greatest legacy,
so this is a meeting to celebrate his historic legacy. For Xi, this is
in fact a meeting to say farewell to the one-China KMT and a meeting to
prepare for working with a new Taiwan. Even though Xi has the power to
keep greater restrictions on Taiwan, the major identity transformation
will make Taiwan a definite new trouble for Beijing.
对马来说，这次会面是对他总统职位的告别。他或许认为海峡两岸的和平是他最大
的贡献，所以他才要跟习见面。对习来说，这是对一中政策的国民党告别，以及对
新台湾的准备工作。虽然习对台湾有很大的框限能力，但是台湾人认同的转变将会
是北京一个新的麻烦。
When rising power meets changing identity, there’s a different
game to play.
崛起的强国遇到转变中的认同，游戏揭晓。
Dr. Zheng Wang is the Director of the Center for Peace and
Conflict Studies (CPCS) at the School of Diplomacy and International
Relations of Seton Hall University in New Jersey. He is a Carnegie
Fellow at New America and a Global Fellow at the Kissinger Institute
on China and the United States of the Woodrow Wilson International
Center for Scholars.
.........很随兴不负责任翻译...........
4.完整新闻连结 (或短网址):http://goo.gl/n6UbhD
5.备注:
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