: 推 mmzznnxxbbcc:求原文 为什么新闻后面都变成经济部强调 经济部分析 08/06 17:16
网址 http://ppt.cc/FL6v
这篇在WSJ网站是要付费的
标题: Taiwan Leaves Itself Behind
副标题:Ratifying a pact with China is the first step to diversified trade.
Taiwan's leaders have warned for years that economic isolation will damage
the nation's competitiveness. Now their worst fears may be coming true, and
the consequences of resisting freer trade and economic reform are becoming
clear.
Later this year China and South Korea plan to finalize a free-trade agreement
that will give most South Korean products zero-tariff entry into the
mainland. That's a problem for Taiwan because both countries count China as
their largest trading partner, and their exporters compete head-to-head.
Between 50% and 80% of Taiwan's exports—from petrochemicals to steel,
textiles to machinery—overlap with South Korea's.
If the deal goes through as expected, roughly 2% to 5% of all of Taiwan's
exports to China could be replaced by South Korean products, according to the
Ministry of Economic Affairs. Businesses with thin profit margins such as
makers of flat panels and machinery are at risk of being priced out of the
mainland market.
Meanwhile, Taiwan's latest trade pact with China signed last year sits in
limbo after the student-led "sunflower movement" stymied its ratification by
the legislature this spring. Protesters stoked anxieties that Taiwan is in
danger of being swallowed up by China as its businesses become increasingly
dependent on the mainland.
It's certainly true that the two economies are deeply intertwined; 80% of
Taiwan's foreign investment and 40% of its exports go to the mainland.
However, placing obstacles in the way of trade and investment won't solve the
problem.
Since China is an integral part of global supply chains, Taiwan only hurts
itself if it preserves barriers to cross-Strait trade. Beijing has also
signalled it will lobby against Taiwan's participation in multilateral pacts
such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership if Taipei doesn't first liberalize with
China. So the road to less reliance on China paradoxically runs through
Beijing.
Taiwan has made some progress on bilateral trade. But pacts with Singapore
and New Zealand over the past year, while welcome, govern less than $30
billion in annual two-way exchange. A South Korea-China FTA threatens up to
$49 billion of Taiwan's exports, according to the Ministry of Economic
Affairs.
Ratifying the cross-Strait services pact now in limbo would pave the way for
a goods trade agreement. It would also show that Taipei has the ability to
ratify and implement trade accords it has signed.
In the meantime, Taipei has started to liberalize the domestic economy in
line with reforms required by TPP. That deal currently involves 12 nations
and 40% of the world's output. Neither Taiwan nor South Korea currently
participates in the negotiations, but both have expressed interest in joining.
Here, too, Seoul has the advantage, having already signed a free-trade
agreement with the U.S. with an eye on many of the stringent TPP
requirements. If Taiwan rewrites outdated regulations and rolls back
restrictions on investment, it can promote domestic competitiveness and
signal that Taipei is serious about joining the TPP.
But first Taiwan's lawmakers have a chance to use a special legislative
session this week to pass a bill promised to protesters to monitor
cross-Strait treaties, and then ratify the cross-Strait services trade pact.
As trade barriers among Taiwan's neighbors fall, failing to do so will
further isolate the island.
重点
中韩的FTA趋近于完成
但中台的贸易依存度高，台韩产业的替代性也高，目前停滞不前的状态会让台湾自伤
没有先签下服贸，北京可能不会让台湾进入TPP
目前台湾正在往加入TPP的部分，符合其要件这边在努力
※注:TPP要衡量欲加入的国家之经贸开放程度、相关法规....
韩国目前也在拼TPP这一块，韩国的优势在于他们已经跟美国洽签的FTA
补充一下
除了TPP跨太平洋伙伴协定外，现在也在找欧盟洽签经济合作协议
比较奇怪的是中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚、新西兰、印度跟东南亚国家的RCEP
好像就无声无息了
华尔街日报在美国商业新闻的位阶，应该算是最高
不输彭博、路透