最近稍微有在关注英冠赛事，在Reddit翻旧文时无意间发现这篇今年八月初的文章，
觉得蛮值得讨论的，所以试着翻译一下。
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https://twitter.com/JamesTippett/status/1024669925066137600
THREAD: BRENTFORD’S “MONEYBALL” PHILOSOPHY
宾福特的“魔球”哲学
James Tippett - 2018年8月1日
◎ Bees have 21st highest playing budget in the Championship, yet four
consecutive top 10 finishes.
在24支英冠球会中，蜜蜂军团的比赛经费仅名列第21名，却在过去四个赛季里均能以前十
名的战绩结束赛季。
┌────────────────┐
│Brentford F.C. 过去五个赛季排名│
├────┬──┬────────┤
│赛季 │联赛│ 排名 │
├────┼──┼────────┤
│2013-14 │英甲│ 第2名（升冠） │
├────┼──┼────────┤
│2014-15 │英冠│ 第5名 │
├────┼──┼────────┤
│2015-16 │英冠│ 第9名 │
├────┼──┼────────┤
│2016-17 │英冠│ 第10名 │
├────┼──┼────────┤
│2017-18 │英冠│ 第9名 │
└────┴──┴────────┘
◎ Gray, Hogan, Odubajo, Jota, Tarkowski, Egan (cost ￡4.4m), sold for ￡38.5m.
Andre Gray、Scott Hogan、Moses Odubajo、Jota、James Tarkowski、John Egan，
宾福特只花了440万英镑买入这六名球员，卖出时却能得到3850万英镑。
◎ Revolutionary use of Expected Goals (xG) in recruitment.
在引援工作上，对预期入球数值分析的革命性运用。
This thread will explain how “little old Brentford”, a club with the
finances and stadium of a League One/Two team, have managed to transform
themselves into a side consistently fighting for promotion to the Premier
League.
这篇文章将解释，“小不拉叽的老宾福特”这支财政状况与场馆大小不过是英甲/英乙等级
的球会，是如何将自身转变为升超的持续竞争者的。（注：蜜蜂球场Griffin Park仅能容
纳12763人）
https://i.imgur.com/PVGRmsP.jpg
Brentford have the fourth lowest playing budget in the Championship, but have
managed to achieve four consecutive top ten finishes since their promotion
from League One in 2014.
在英冠联赛里，宾福特的比赛经费是第四低的，但自从2014年升冠后，他们已经连续四个
赛季维持前十名的战绩。
Their story has been likened to the “Moneyball” revolution in baseball.
他们的故事，与职棒的“魔球”革命颇为类似。
https://i.imgur.com/vEULmft.jpg
In football, money is power.
在足球的世界里，金钱就是力量。
The correlation between the size of a club’s wage bill and their success in
the league pyramid is incredibly strong.
一支球会的薪资规模与他们在联赛的成功与否，呈现极其强的正相关。
Brentford are the only consistent anomaly of the last few years. (not
indicated in graph below, as weren’t in top two divisions.)
在过去数年里，宾福特是唯一一支始终如一的“反例”（并未显示在以下的图表，且那段
时间宾福特也不在英超与英冠联赛比赛）。
https://i.imgur.com/CotUtzr.jpg
Brentford realised that if David fights with the same weapons as Goliath, he
will surely lose.
宾福特知道，假如大卫用一样的武器和歌利亚搏斗，他必然会输。
In order to compete with much wealthier clubs, they had to be SMARTER and
develop unique means of operating.
为了与更富有的球会竞争，他们必须更聪明地竞争、发展出更独特的经营方式。
https://i.imgur.com/kT20xgx.jpg
The Bees main innovation has come in the recruiting of players.
蜜蜂军团主要的革新在于球员引援方面。
Put in extremely simple terms, Brentford have utilised the Expected Goals
method to consistently sign UNDERVALUED players.
用最简单的术语讲，宾福特利用分析预期入球数的方法，持续签入价值被低估的球员。
They have managed to pick up several high quality players for rock-bottom
prices.
用这种方法，他们以最低点的价格签下许多高品质的球员。
https://i.imgur.com/0KBt0go.jpg
HOWEVER, they don’t just buy players who are undervalued.
不过，他们并不只是买入价值被低估的球员。
Brentford also look to SELL players who are OVERVALUED. When a club is
willing to pay more for a player than he is intrinsically worth, Brentford
are keen to sell him.
当球员的价值被高估时，宾福特也会将他们卖掉。当一支球会愿意花费比某球员本身价值
要更多的钱来买他，宾福特便很精明地把他卖掉。
Brentford treat players like a trader treats stocks. The golden rule:
宾福特看待球员，正如股民看待手中的股票。他们的黄金法则便是：
BUY when one is UNDERVALUED
买入－当某球员价值被低估；
SELL when one is OVERVALUED
卖出－当某球员价值被高估。
https://i.imgur.com/d54jOa9.jpg
Scott Hogan is an example of a player who become overvalued. When Villa
offered ￡12m for the striker, Bees fans didn’t want him to go.
Scott Hogan便是个价值被高估的例子。当维拉为这名前锋开出1200万英镑的价码，蜜蜂球
迷并不希望他离开。
However that money has since been invested in a whole new generation of
undervalued talent, who will also be sold on when they become over-priced.
不过，这笔钱在之后会被投资在新一代的有才球员，而这批球员之后也将被卖出，在他们
被开出超过本身价值的高价之后。
https://i.imgur.com/R9sknTb.jpg
Here is the “Brentford FC Moneyball XI”:
这张图显示“宾福特魔球十一人”：
Bought for ￡6.7m
Sold for ￡57.3m
买入－670万英镑
卖出－5730万英镑
Profit: ￡50.6m
净利润－5060万英镑
https://i.imgur.com/aA7VXBe.jpg
Over the last four years, those specific eleven players have been bought for
and sold for a profit of over ￡50m.
在过去四年里，这十一名球员被买低卖高，让球会赚了超过5000万英镑。
To put that in perspective, Brentford have only spent ~￡22m in their entire
130-year history. (their record transfer fee paid was ￡2.7m this summer for
Said Benrahma.)
做为比较，宾福特在球会过去130年历史里只花了2200万英镑在球员引援方面。（他们的转
会纪录保持人是Said Benrahma，这个夏天球会以270万英镑的“高价”将他买入）
These are only a few examples of players who Brentford have brought in for
cheap, and sold for a premium.
这不过是宾福特逢低买入、逢高卖出的其中几个例子罢了。
The Bees have become transfer market maestros, and are probably the most
well-run club in the country when it comes to recruitment.
蜜蜂军团已经成为转会市场的“大师”，而且可能是这个国家在引援方面，经营状况最良
好的球会。
https://i.imgur.com/W0cqZOT.jpg
But how exactly do Brentford continuously manage to find hidden gems?
但是，宾福特究竟是如何持续找出隐藏宝石的呢？
The key lies with their owner, Matthew Benham, who also owns statistical
analysis company Smartodds.
关键在于球会的老板Matthew Benham（注：2013年入主球会），他同时也是数据分析公司
Smartodds的老板。
Smartodds collects Expected Goals data on football matches, and uses this
data to win millions each year through betting on football.
Smartodds蒐集每场球赛的球员预期入球数据，并利用这些数据，每年成功地靠赌球营利数
百万。
However, Benham also uses the data collected by the company to recruit
players for Brentford FC.
不过，Benham也利用公司蒐集的数据，为宾福特招募球员。
https://i.imgur.com/sZklmz0.jpg
Here’s a thread on the Expected Goals method (xG) which I would recommend
checking out before/after reading the rest of this thread...
这里是一篇有关预期入球数（xG）的文章，我推荐大家在阅读本文之前或之后去阅读这篇
文章......
https://twitter.com/JamesTippett/status/1011268751579283457
In extremely simple terms, the Expected Goals method tells you which
teams/players are actually performing well, and which have simply been lucky.
用最简单的术语来说，预期入球数告诉你，哪支球队/哪位球员确实表现良好，而哪一些只
是那天运气比较好。
Brentford have used this information to spot players who are underrated by
the rest of the footballing world.
宾福特使用这些资讯，聚焦那些被足球世界其他人低估的球员。
https://i.imgur.com/qjNZ4Nh.jpg
For example, in 2014 Brentford’s analysts noticed a striker called Andre
Gray who was playing in the Conference (the 5th tier of English football) for
Luton Town.
举例来说，2014年，宾福特的分析师注意到有位前锋叫Andre Gray，他为第五级联赛－议
会全国联赛的鲁顿镇踢球。
Brentford managed to snatch him up for ￡500k, selling him to Burnley for ￡
9m (+ ~￡3.5m sell-on fee) the next year.
宾福特以50万英镑的价格签下他，隔年便以900+350万英镑将他卖给班来。
https://i.imgur.com/t6HS7qh.jpg
Brentford’s statistical philosophy has allowed them to compete with far
wealthier teams
宾福特的统计哲学，使他们能与远比他们富有的球会竞争。
Here’s an extract from The Football Code (written before last season)...
这里是我上赛季前在The Football Code写的一篇文章的摘录......
https://i.imgur.com/ufMxqED.jpg
若要依财务状况为英格兰足球联赛的每支球队排出一个预期排名，再与他们的真实排名相
比，宾福特连续三个赛季在英冠联赛名列前十的成绩，将使他们成为足球史上最超出预期
的球队之一。
在他们最近的一个赛季，即2016-17英冠赛季，宾福特的薪资开销仅约每周17.2万英镑，这
代表在财务状况上，这支球队仅排在英冠24支球队的第21名，只有三支球队的薪资开销比
这支西伦敦球队还低。
在2016-17赛季，英冠球会的平均薪资开销是每周37.5万英镑，这代表一支平均水准的英冠
球队，其薪资开销超过宾福特的两倍。蜜蜂军团在赛季结束时的排名超过阿斯顿维拉（周
薪95.1万英镑）、卡地夫城（周薪44万英镑）、诺丁汉森林（周薪33.9万英镑）、女王公
园巡游者（周薪40.2万英镑）与狼队（周薪44.4万英镑）。
如果从财务状况来看，宾福特本应是为保级而战的球会，但Benham的分析系统与革新的球
会经营策略，使他们得以在英冠联赛名列前十。做为比较，前十名的其他九支球队，平均
周薪是51.1万英镑，宾福特的三倍。更要记住的是，蜜蜂军团在2015-16赛季名列第九，而
在2014-15赛季，他们更令人难以置信地取得第五名（注：升超附加赛准决赛两回合累计
1-5负于米德尔斯堡）。Benham的系统使宾福特得以持续挑战优势者。