https://www.reddit.com/r/EtherMining/comments/6t56a0/important_information_
from_todays_ethereum_dev/
缩网址: https://goo.gl/47XJtz
Hi Guys,
I’ve been waiting to do this post until after the Dev meeting today as I
wanted to give an update on Ethereum mining and what we are going to see over
the coming weeks and months. I’ve seen so many questions and so much
mis-information about what is happening that I wanted to try and clear it up.
Some of you may be aware that 3 main issues concerning mining are currently
being actively discussed by the Ethereum dev team:
1. Casper (POS) will not be coming anytime soon
For those of you not aware of what POS is, please go look it up in more
detail but for the purpose of this post, it will be the Ethereum update that
removes mining as it exists today. Once Casper goes live, we will not be able
to mine ETH with GPUs (POW) anymore. Casper was planned to go live towards
the end of this year but has been delayed. While no new date is set, my own
personal estimate is it will come towards the very end of 2018.
POS暂时不会来啦 作者预测大概到2018年年底才有可能实行POS
2. Due to No. 1 above, the difficulty bomb needs to be pushed back to such a
time that they are closer to implementing Casper
For the Ethereum Homestead release in March 2016, code was added to create a
difficulty bomb on the Ethereum network, often referred to as 'The Ice Age'.
The purpose of this code was to increase the difficulty of Ethereum mining
over time as it came to the end of POW and into POS with the difficulty
increasing exponentially as we got closer to the expected POS implementation.
The original planned date at that time for POS was the end of 2016 but when
they realised this was not feasible, the bomb was delayed and given a more
gradual initial impact.
We are now coming towards the end of 2017 and as Casper has been delayed, we
are in a situation were mining difficulty is increasing exponentially. To
combat this, the devs are discussing another delay of the difficulty bomb,
pushing it out by approx 16-17 months and giving themselves that time to
finalise and implement Casper. After todays call, the current expectation is
that this update will role out as part of the Metropolis Byzantium update
which they are expecting to go live somewhere around the last week of
September or first week of October depending on testing.
dev team讨论要把炸弹延后到16-17个月之后(大概是作者预测POS会在2018年底的原因)
解除炸弹的大都会协议预计九月的最后一周 或是十月第一周正式启动
3. In-line with the No.2, they would like to reduce the issuance of ETH per
block to curb Inflation
The dev team have said in previous forums that they expect the inflation of
Ethereum to be approx 4% when it moves into POS. Up until now, the rate of
inflation has been much higher than this, for 2017 it will have been approx
12-13%. As POS will not be coming for another 12 months, they are proposing
that the number of ETH issued per block falls from the current 5 to 3. There
is a larger back story to this debate of issuance that I won’t go into here
but if you feel like researching yourself, this article covers some of it:
https://www.coindesk.com/ice-age-coming-ethereum-users-vote-reducing-block-reward/
dev team本来预计在POS之前eth会通膨4% 但是目前已经通膨12-13%
现在POS又延期 所以他们决定把出块量从5改成3
So what does this mean for us Miners?
I’m sure everyone here has been aware of the massive difficulty jumps we
have seen while mining ETH over the last number of weeks / months. We have
had 2 very significant spikes in the last month or so with the first coming
around July 10th and the next coming around July 31st. Both of these spikes
where caused by difficulty bombs with the next one expected to land on August
25th, the following one on September 24th and another on October 31st.
For those of you wondering what the real world impact of these bombs going
off is, they are significantly increasing the amount of time it takes to mine
blocks. Before one of the first bombs went off in mid May, it took on average
about 14.5 secs to mine one block which contained 5 ETH. If you look at this
chart https://etherscan.io/chart/blocktime you can see the exact times each
subsequent bomb has gone off to the point we are at now were it is taking
about 21 secs to mine 1 block of ETH. With the current implementation of Ice
Age, this is what block times will look like over the coming bomb drops:
August 25th - 25 seconds
September 24th - 32 seconds
October 31st - 41 seconds
As you can see, the block times are increasing exponentially and by October
31st, it would take 41 secs to mine 1 block of 5 ETH, meaning we would earn
approx half of what we do today. (Not taking into consideration any new
miners coming on board which also drives difficulty up).
目前的难度是每21秒出一块
8/25会变成25秒出一块
9/24 32秒
10/31 41秒
After the dev call today, we now know that the update to delay the bomb into
2018 will not happen until after the bomb drop on September 24th meaning
there is going to be a very tight squeeze on miners over the coming weeks,
possibly to the point of it costing more in electricity for some people than
what they earn. To make it easy for you to calculate, whatever you earn
today, it will be about 19% less after August 25th. Whatever you earn then,
it will be about 28% less after September 24th. Again, none of this takes
into consideration rising difficulty from potential new miners coming into
the network.
因为大都会在九月最后一个礼拜或是十月第一礼拜才会启动
所以8/25和9/24这两颗炸弹是爆定了
意思就是 8/25之后你的收益会减少19% 9/24后会减少28%
P.S. 这里我觉得他好像算错了
我算出来是8/25后收益少16% 9/24后少34.4% 10/31后少48.8%
When Metropolis Byzantium does go live, we will see the network return to
approx 15sec block times however the issuance will likely reduce to 3. This
means that we will essentially earn the same amount of ETH then as we will
between Aug 25th and Sept 24th (3 per 15s is the same as 5 per 25s). With
this happening, the only thing that will drive the difficulty of mining will
be mining hash power so I would like to touch on that for a moment. Below is
an overview of the mining hash increases we have seen in recent months:
1st May to 1st of June the total network mining hashing power grew from
22.85TH to 34.41 or 50.6%.
1st June to 1st of July it grew to 59.19TH or 72%.
1st July to 1st August it grew to 78.26TH or 32.2%.
However, from Aug 1st to Aug 11th, it has only grew to 79.86TH which is
approx 2%. This massive drop off in mining hash power growth is directly
related to the difficulty bumps we are seeing in the network. I expect that
after the bomb on August 26th, we will see a significant number of miners
leave the Ethereum network and move to other alt coins, massively impacting
the profitability and difficulty of those coins as they go. I believe this
will actually cause a regression in the Ethereum mining hash power through to
the Metropolis Byzantium update. After this update, I expect our mining
rewards will be equal to what we get after the August 26th which is going to
be approx 20% less than what we get today. If that is going to be an issue
for you, you may want to consider selling your rigs now or start researching
what other coins you can mine to stay profitable.
大都会的设定是15秒出一块 出块量是3eth
难度相当于8/24的难度炸弹设定 (15秒出3eth 25秒出5eth)
所以当大都会启动后 预期的收益将会比我们现在的收益少20%
目前ETH的算力增加减缓许多 所以作者预测在8/25的炸弹爆了之后
会有大量的算力离开eth改挖其他货币
如果对于目前的收益再少20%无法接受的人 已经可以洗洗睡了...
不对 是可以考虑卖掉显卡会准备改挖其他货币了XD
In summary, it is going to be a very volatile few weeks for mining. After the
difficulty increase on August 26th I expect we will see a large number of ETH
miners move to other coins which will have a large impact both on those coin
networks and coin prices. ETH rewards will be approx 20% less than what they
are today and approx 50% from September 24th until whenever Metropolis
Byzantium launches. The last thing I would like to close with though is this,
the dev team have missed nearly every deadline they have ever set… There is
no guarantee that Metropolis Byzantium will launch in September, October or
even November but at least they understand that block times of above 40s are
going to impact the network and some of the Dapps. This leaves me hopeful
they will have this update out in the vicinity of the timelines they spoke
about today.
根据dev team几乎每次都会delay的纪录来说
作者觉得大都会根本不可能在9月或10月启动 甚至连11月都不会启动XD
I personally think these changes are a good compromise for miners. Would I
like them to leave the issuance at 5 ETH after the bomb is delayed?
Absolutely!! But as POS was delayed and we will get to continue mining ETH
for another year at least, I feel it is a good trade off.
至少我们还可以继续挖eth挖一年就是了
重点整理
1. POS延期到2018年年底
2. 大都会会在九月底十月初启动 但是不期不待 没有伤害
3. 先不管难度炸弹和算力增加的问题 大都会启动后的收益就是现在收益的80%左右
4. 不能接受收益比现在再少20%的朋友 可以准备挖其他币或卖显卡惹
以上不负责翻译XD