[闲聊] 联想电脑:内存甜甜价像战女一样回不去

楼主: silentknight (清纯男)   2026-06-29 12:12:07
PC Manufacturer Lenovo Suggests RAM Prices Will "Never" Go Back To What They
Were
https://www.thegamer.com/lenovo-ram-never-pre-2025-price/
Xbox and PlayStation are making their consoles more expensive, while the
Steam Machine will cost over $1,000 out of the gate. Apple also just quietly
raised the price of its entire Mac and iPad lineup—with top-tier machines
jumping by $1,300 overnight. It is impossible to overstate the impact of the
'RAMpocalypse,' the global memory shortage spurred on by the insatiable
demands of AI data centers. And while many are waiting for a return to
normalcy, leading PC manufacturer Lenovo argues that there will be a "new
normal" from 2030 onwards with significantly higher RAM prices, even if
production ramps up.
Xbox和PlayStation正在提高游戏机的价格,而Steam Machine的起售价将超过1000美元。
苹果也悄悄提高了旗下所有Mac和iPad产品线的价格——高阶机型一夜之间涨价1,300美元
。人工智能资料中心对内存的庞大需求引发了全球内存短缺,这场“内存末日”的
影响不容小觑。尽管许多人都在期盼一切恢复正常,但领先的PC制造商联想认为,即使产
能提升,从2030年起,内存价格仍将大幅上涨,届时将出现一种“新常态”。
As reported by ComputerBase (via Wccftech), speaking at ISC 2026—a German
computing, AI, and quantum conference—Lenovo predicted that memory prices
will "never" return to their pre-2025 figures. That means these absurdly high
computing prices are now the baseline, and $599.99—$799.99 consoles aren't
going anywhere. Higher prices for SSDs and memory modules are already
delaying next-gen plans and forcing developers to reckon with fewer players
upgrading their hardware, placing a greater emphasis on optimization, rather
than iteration. If computing remains this expensive, the entire industry's
growth is about to hit a brick wall.
根据ComputerBase(透过Wccftech)报导,联想在2026年德国电脑、人工智能和量子计算
大会 (ISC 2026) 上预测,内存价格“永远”不会回到2025年之前的水平。这意味着
目前高得离谱的运算成本已成为基准,售价599.99美元至799.99美元的游戏主机将长期
存在。固态硬盘和内存模组价格的上涨已经导致下一代游戏主机的开发计划延期,迫使
开发者不得不面对硬件升级需求下降的现实,从而更加注重优化而非迭代。如果计算成本
持续如此之高,整个产业的成长将面临瓶颈。
It's hardly surprising considering the global DRAM market is one of the
tightest oligopolies in the tech sector, with manufacturing consolidated
among just three companies: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Following the boom
in generative AI technology, the trio aggressively shifted their focus to
producing memory components for data centers—a far more lucrative deal than
working with PC and console manufacturers. Not only did this spark a global
shortage, but the trio's absolute dominance also ensures they can dictate
pricing. Valve engineer Pierre-Loup Griffais recently offered a stark insight
into this reality, noting: "They give us a price every month [...] And if we
say no, then they never talk to us again."
考虑到全球DRAM市场是科技领域竞争最激烈的寡占市场之一,其生产几乎完全集中在三星
、SK海力士和美光三家公司手中,这种情况也就不难理解了。随着生成式人工智能技术的
蓬勃发展,这三家公司迅速将重心转向资料中心内存组件的生产——这比与PC和游戏机
制造商合作利润丰厚得多。这不仅引发了全球内存短缺,而且三家公司的绝对主导地位
也确保了它们能够左右价格。 Valve工程师Pierre-Loup Griffais最近对此做出了深刻的
剖析,他指出:“他们每个月都给我们报价……如果我们拒绝,他们就再也不会跟我们谈
了。”
Building a semiconductor fabrication plant requires billions of dollars and
years of development, leaving the entire gaming and tech industry completely
at the mercy of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, who have abandoned everyday
consumer tech in favor of the astronomical profit margins commanded by AI
data centers. Look no further than Microsoft’s own internal forecasting;
alongside recent Xbox price hikes, the company explicitly warned that console
storage and memory costs have already surged by over 2.5x—and it expects
those costs to double again "by the fall of 2027."
建造一座半导体制造厂需要数十亿美元和数年的研发,这使得整个游戏和科技产业完全受
制于三星、SK海力士和美光等公司。这些公司放弃了日常消费科技产品,转而追求人工智
慧资料中心带来的天文数字般的利润。微软自身的内部预测是最好的证明;除了最近Xbox
的价格上涨之外,该公司还明确警告称,游戏主机存储和内存成本已经飙升了2.5倍以上
,并且预计到2027年秋季,这些成本还将再次翻番。
Even if the AI bubble bursts, prices likely won't improve. Samsung, SK Hynix,
and Micron have already spent billions reconfiguring their physical factory
floor space to produce complex AI memory chips. Furthermore, the trio are
locked into multi-year supply contracts that stretch as far out as 2030.
Regardless of whether data center demand cools down, the legal obligations to
corporate tech giants will remain. And then there's the reality that we've
all had to grapple with after the COVID-19 pandemic: if people are willing to
pay more during a crisis, they'll pay more after, so why reduce the cost?
即使人工智能泡沫破裂,价格也可能不会下降。三星、SK海力士和美光已经投入数十亿美
元改造其工厂厂房,以生产复杂的人工智能内存芯片。此外,这三家公司都签有长达数
年的供货合同,最长可达2030年。无论资料中心的需求是否降温,这些科技巨头的法律义
务依然存在。还有一点,我们在新冠疫情后都必须面对:如果人们在危机期间愿意支付更
高的价格,那么危机过后他们也会支付更高的价格,那么为什么要降低价格呢?
作者: Sechslee (キタ━━(゚∀゚)━━!!)   2026-06-29 12:14:00
把钱拿去买内存股票就有钱买更贵的内存了
作者: labbat (labbat)   2026-06-29 12:15:00
说好的2028年内存价格可望正常呢?
作者: astinky (此方のことが大好きだ!)   2026-06-29 12:16:00
不要跟历史作对,内存终究会循环的
作者: MikageSayo (御影佐夜)   2026-06-29 12:21:00
又把球踢过来了(?
作者: DEGON (你先听我讲一句就好)   2026-06-29 12:21:00
哪里有提到战女
作者: motw1999 (我的拳可还没生锈啊)   2026-06-29 12:25:00
联想根本没自己提到战女 标题唬烂
作者: zw39107 (zw39107)   2026-06-29 12:27:00
循环也太不可能回去以前的价格了,有可能是先再涨两三倍再循环回现在的价格
作者: roea68roea68 (なんもかんも政治が悪い)   2026-06-29 12:28:00
只能期望中国做起来卷下去 不然这价格一定回不去
作者: zw39107 (zw39107)   2026-06-29 12:29:00
中国自己也要发展AI产能也不够用,而且他们给的报价也没比较低,有钱能赚干嘛不赚中国没有高阶HBM反而需要更多中低阶的才够AI用
作者: lyt5566 (无糖奶茶很难喝)   2026-06-29 12:30:00
战女呢?
作者: orze04 (orz)   2026-06-29 12:30:00
有人冀望中国能把内存价格打下来,现实是他们会一样高价卖需求量太大,就算加入中国的产能还是不够
作者: Konaha (小奈羽)   2026-06-29 12:38:00
战女不是还寄生在AGA内吗 哪有回不去
作者: leo255112 (咖啡成瘾太容易)   2026-06-29 12:40:00
也不能怪内存厂,毕竟design 端吃肉真的吃很久了
作者: ack0011 (ack0011)   2026-06-29 12:41:00
现在DDR3都挖出来用了,甚至连DDR2都开始动了以后真的要去回收场拆内存颗粒了
作者: linearppt (lin)   2026-06-29 12:42:00
要买电脑手机赶快买,现在出来一堆狂烧token的项目,2-3年价钱降不下来,产能是不可能短期变出来的
作者: wulouise (在线上!=在电脑前)   2026-06-29 12:49:00
我买一股sndk涨的钱够我买64gb ddr4 xd
作者: SSglamr (海边漂来的qwer)   2026-06-29 13:20:00
战女? 幻想文喔
作者: Tsukasayeo (观月司)   2026-06-29 13:27:00
姆咪
作者: AndyMAX (微)   2026-06-29 13:31:00
联想当然会这样说 DHL早就跟三巨头签长约
作者: YYOO (回游鱼のキャパシティ)   2026-06-29 14:16:00
姆咪蹦蹦跳

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