[妄言] 前高层给索、任、软突破销量瓶颈的忠告

楼主: silentknight (清纯男)   2025-12-30 17:59:05
Former PlayStation Exec Says Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo Must Learn From
VHS's Victory Over Betamax if They Want to Truly Expand the Console Audience
https://www.ign.com/articles/former-playstation-exec-says-sony-microsoft-and-
nintendo-must-learn-from-vhss-victory-over-betamax-if-they-want-to-truly-
expand-the-console-audience
Posted: Dec 29, 2025 10:03 pm
Video game console sales cap out each generation at around 250 million, so
how will the console manufacturers break through that barrier? By learning a
crucial lesson from the videotape format war, one former PlayStation
executive has suggested.
电子游戏主机每一代的销售上限约为2.5亿台,那么主机制造商该如何突破这一瓶颈呢?
一位前PlayStation高层建议,他们可以从录影带格式之争中吸取关键教训。
Speaking on the Pause for Thought and Naomi Kyle YouTube channel, Shawn
Layden, former boss of Sony Interactive Entertainment America (SIEA), said
the console video game market has hit a limit, and significant change is
needed to expand beyond it.
在Pause for Thought 和 Naomi Kyle 的 YouTube 频道上,索尼互动娱乐美国公司
(SIEA) 前总裁 Shawn Layden 表示,主机电玩市场已经达到极限,需要进行重大变革才
能突破这一限制。
“We talk about gaming as being this $250 billion industry, which it is, and
have hundreds of millions of users, which it does,” he began. “But of
course that includes if you're playing Wordle, you're a gamer. If you're
playing Candy Crush, you're a gamer in that number. But the number of
discrete consoles sold over any particular generation caps out about 250
million. If you line up all the PS1s, Sega Saturns, and N64s, and you go by
generations, it's all about 250. The one time it popped to almost 300 was the
generation that had the Wii, and people thought you could buy Wii Fit and
lose weight. So, we got some non-traditional gaming audience to buy into the
gaming industry at that time. But that was an anomaly and we've still kind of
flattened out. So we need to crack that cap, that barrier.”
“我们常说游戏产业价值2500亿美元,这没错,而且拥有数亿用户,这也没错,”他说
。 “当然,这其中也包括玩Wordle的玩家,玩Candy Crush的玩家也算在内。但任何一代
主机的销量上限都约为2.5亿台。如果你把PS1、世嘉土星和N64的销量按世代排列,总销
量也差不多是2.5亿台。只有一次销量接近3亿台,那是Wii主机上市的那一代人,当时人
们所上市的那一代人,那一代人买了。 Fit就能减肥。
But how? Layden said the video game industry should study the past as it
looks to the future, in particular Betamax’s loss to VHS in the videotape
format war.
但该如何做呢?莱登表示,电子游戏产业在展望未来时应该研究过去,特别是Betamax在
录影带格式之争中败给VHS的教训。
The videotape format war was a late 1970s/1980s battle between Sony's Betamax
and JVC's VHS for dominance in home video recording, with VHS ultimately
winning due to longer recording times, broader licensing (more manufacturers)
, and key partnerships with movie studios, making movies available for
rental/purchase on VHS more readily, despite Betamax often having slightly
better initial quality.
录影带格式之战是 20 世纪 70 年代末/80 年代索尼的 Betamax 和 JVC 的 VHS 之间争
夺家庭录影带主导权的战争,最终 VHS 凭借更长的录制时间、更广泛的授权(更多制造
商)以及与电影制片厂的关键合作关系而获胜,使得电影更容易通过 VHS 进行租赁/购买
“Betamax lost to VHS for one reason only: that VHS licensed its format
across many different manufacturers,” Layden explained. “Sony held the
unique Betamax patent trademark and everything. There was a license we did
with Toshiba towards the end of the lifecycle, but it never went wide like
VHS.
“Betamax 败给 VHS 的原因只有一个:VHS 将其格式授权给了许多不同的制造商,”莱
登解释。 “索尼拥有 Betamax 的独特专利商标权等等。在 Betamax 生命周期的末期,
我们曾与东芝达成过一项授权协议,但它从未像 VHS 那样广泛普及。”
“People didn't understand that need of having the same machine as your
neighbor. You can have an RCA TV and you can have a Sony TV and you know
that's all fine. But once your neighbor has picked VHS and you want to watch
that tape of that movie, but you have Betamax, all of a sudden… So the
industry coalesced around VHS.
“人们不理解那种需要和邻居拥有相同机器的需求。你可以有一台RCA电视,也可以有一
台索尼电视,你知道这都没问题。但是,一旦你的邻居选择了VHS录影带,而你想看那部
电影的录影带,但你只有Betamax录影带,突然之间……所以整个产业就围绕着VHS录影带
凝聚起来了。”
“Then later on, Sony and Phillips created the compact disc consortium. They
created the patent and then they licensed it out to all the other
manufacturers. Same thing happened with DVD. Same thing happened with
Blu-ray. They said that we'll compete on the device. So if you get a Bang &
Olufsen Blu-ray player, it's going to cost you more than the Sanyo version,
even though they'll both support the platform, but they'll have different
bells and whistles.”
“后来,索尼和飞利浦成立了CD联盟。他们申请了专利,然后授权给所有其他制造商。
DVD也是如此。蓝光光盘也是如此。他们说,我们要在设备上展开竞争。所以,如果你买
一台Bang & Olufsen的蓝光播放器,它的价格会比三洋的贵,即使它们都支持这个平台,
但它们的功能和附加特性会有所不同。”
This, Layden said, is exactly what the video game industry should do: create
a gaming format consortium of sorts.
莱登表示,这正是电子游戏产业该做的:创造一个游戏格式联盟。
“I think we need to get in a world where we have a gaming format,” he said.
“Maybe it just comes from PC. Maybe we find a way just to do it all in a
Linux kernel or something. And then we have a consortium around that. We have
licensing programs which allow other manufacturers to build into that space,
and then you can talk about real numbers moving. You know, that's how you get
to the ubiquity of the toaster. But right now, I think we're trapped in this
containment field.”
“我认为我们需要进入一个拥有统一游戏格式的世界,”他说。 “也许它就源自PC。也
许我们能找到一种方法,用Linux核心或其他类似的技术来实现这一切。然后我们围绕它
建立一个联盟。我们制定授权计划,允许其他厂商在这个领域进行开发,这样才能真正推
动市场增长。你知道,就像烤面包机普及一样,我们就是这样一步步实现的。但现在,我
认为我们被困在这个封闭的领域里。”
Following Layden’s thought here though, it would require Sony, Microsoft,
and Nintendo to come together to agree upon a singular gaming format that
means all video games play on all consoles. Not only that, but any company
would then be able to try its hand at making a PlayStation or an Xbox, and
compete with the first-party console manufacturers in the market.
不过,按照莱登的思路,这需要索尼、微软和任天堂达成共识,制定统一的游戏格式,确
保所有游戏都能在所有主机上运作
作者: aaronhkg (阿金)   2025-12-30 18:00:00
讲白点 就低能儿而已
作者: comparable (灰蜡烛)   2025-12-30 18:01:00
不如猜任天堂这次听完笑多久
作者: youzen1226 (冷訾夜月)   2025-12-30 18:02:00
统一格式要怎么普及到不玩游戏的人?
作者: tsairay (火の红宝石)   2025-12-30 18:04:00
蛮低能的,那用pc就好,还搞什
作者: game721006 (Simon)   2025-12-30 18:06:00
突破瓶颈不就两个选择,PC和手机。
作者: sezna (sezna)   2025-12-30 18:07:00
微软不就这样,然后叉盒 series死了
作者: molie11 (路人综合体)   2025-12-30 18:07:00
爽的只有软 索任才不鸟
作者: roger2623900 (whitecrow)   2025-12-30 18:08:00
微软是因为主机是赔钱货 索任谁想放弃封闭市场
作者: caryamdtom (囧人不囧)   2025-12-30 18:08:00
普及格式,但玩家还是只有那些啊
作者: DivKai (DivKai)   2025-12-30 18:22:00
现在3A越来越无聊 就你们这些高层整天想有的没的
作者: storyo11413 (小便)   2025-12-30 18:26:00
老任干嘛配合助愚蠢行为?放弃利益追求这无聊数据?
作者: krousxchen (城府很深)   2025-12-30 18:31:00
他真的是PS前高管吗?PS1N64SS加起来也才一亿五,哪来两亿五?PS2XBGC这代突破两亿,Ps360wii才突破两亿五
作者: kureijiollie (奥莉薇雅)   2025-12-30 18:34:00
作者: krousxchen (城府很深)   2025-12-30 18:35:00
PS4XB1WiiUNS破三亿PS5世代破不了三亿最大原因就XB自毁
作者: chuegou (chuegou)   2025-12-30 18:41:00
听起来就收束到要马手游 要马steam
作者: ginsong (pooh)   2025-12-30 18:50:00
主机上限就在那,现在娱乐装置更多更竞争
作者: LuckSK (幸运的SK)   2025-12-30 18:50:00
创造一个游戏格式联盟 steam:找我?
作者: a235477919 (牛逼张学友)   2025-12-30 18:54:00
所以手游玩家量超越了这些家机
作者: ice76824 (不成熟的绅士)   2025-12-30 19:00:00
PS是没有上限的
作者: iamnotgm (伽藍之黑)   2025-12-30 19:01:00
这问题跟结论什么关系?按照他的前提就算一统江湖总量也还是2.5亿阿
作者: kcball   2025-12-30 19:04:00
我是觉得他前面说的跟他后面的结论好像没有关系....
作者: erward (erward)   2025-12-30 19:08:00
3DO?
作者: garman0403 (他长)   2025-12-30 19:13:00
游戏格式是啥...
作者: blackstyles (夜猫)   2025-12-30 19:18:00
你们去啊 我不加入 嘻嘻
作者: a12073311 (没有)   2025-12-30 19:22:00
结论不就是 老任要让马萨宝上PS(或所有主机) ?高层要
作者: HanadaIru (花田伊露)   2025-12-30 19:29:00
PC是最不可能统一格式的吧XD
作者: guogu   2025-12-30 19:32:00
笑死 那样干脆叫三家收掉都上PC不就好了 还不用谈规格
作者: aa1477888 (Mika)   2025-12-30 19:33:00
概念上不是统一格式 应该是跨平台战略不是传统的家机跨PC 而是要把所有终端像是手机、Mac之类通通拉进来
作者: ginsong (pooh)   2025-12-30 19:58:00
有些玩家是以游戏进入门槛高而自豪
作者: S2357828 (方丈为人很小心眼的)   2025-12-30 20:06:00
所以这跟主机销量有什么关系?
作者: laipenguin (いいセンスだ)   2025-12-30 20:19:00
这情况老任大概不会想参与其中吧…多年来都是自己玩自己的花样
作者: hankiwi (_han_)   2025-12-30 20:32:00
任:喔是喔
作者: shinelusnake (阳光鲁宅)   2025-12-30 20:36:00
主机都是买来玩游戏的,搞统一干嘛有时间想这些把戏为什么不把时间拿去端正自己的游戏呢
作者: P2 (P2)   2025-12-30 21:04:00
任: who?
作者: mrmowmow (mow)   2025-12-30 21:36:00
人老了就这样,赌赢一次,一辈子就只有这个想法,脑袋僵化了,接受不了新事物,ps3想靠蓝光结果滑铁卢就告诉你了,同一招不会一直有用
作者: Kaken (← 看到他请催稿)   2025-12-30 21:50:00
简单说就是所有游戏全通用于一个平台,好比现在的steam(虽然不是但非常接近)但,有必要吗?
作者: Koyomiiii (Koyomi)   2025-12-30 21:54:00
现在索游戏这么烂不就这些前高层害的 ㄏ
作者: e86117934 (僵尸)   2025-12-30 23:31:00
老任的想法就是让平时不玩游戏的人也跑来买游戏机回去玩,手机的出现已经大幅度的侵蚀休闲玩家,但switch我认识的朋友一堆都为了动森去买了,现在还有以前没买过主机的朋友为了宝可梦去买。

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