来源:
CNBC
内容:
标题
The race to succeed Germany’s Angela Merkel just got more exciting
接替德国总理安格拉‧默克尔(Angela Merkel)的竞选变得更加激动人心
The race has just become even more complicated, with two rivals contesting
the conservative ticket.
竞选变得更加复杂，两个竞争对手正在争夺保守派候选人的席位
CDU lawmakers will discuss who that should be on Tuesday and hope to come to
a decision this week. But it will be a difficult choice between their party
leader and someone as popular as Soeder.
基督教民主联盟的立法者们将在周二讨论谁将担任总统，并希望在本周做出决定。
但是，在他们的党派领袖和像索德这样受欢迎的人之间，将是一个艰难的选择。
The CDU/CSU are polling about 27%, but are closely followed by the Green
party, which currently has about 21% of the public support and has been going
up in recent surveys.
基督教民主联盟/基督教社会联盟的支持率约为27% ，但紧随其后的是绿党，
目前绿党拥有约21% 的公众支持率，而且在最近的调查中支持率一直在上升。
LONDON — It was never going to be easy to find a successor to Angela Merkel,
German chancellor for the last 16 years. But the race has just become even
more complicated, with two rivals contesting the conservative ticket.
伦敦ー要找到一位接替过去16年德国总理安格拉‧默克尔(Angela Merkel)的继任者，从
来都不是件容易的事。但是竞选变得更加复杂，两个竞争对手正在争夺保守党的席位。
The obvious conservative candidate in the upcoming German election would be
Armin Laschet, head of the North Rhine-Westphalia state. He was elected
leader of Merkel’s CDU party in January and claims he wants to modernize
Germany.
在即将到来的德国大选中，明显的保守派候选人将会是德意志北莱茵-威斯特法伦的领袖
Armin Laschet。他在一月份被选为默克尔的基民盟党的领导人，并声称他想要使德国现
代化。
That was until Markus Soeder, from the Bavarian sister party, the CSU, threw
his hat in the ring. Soeder is arguably the most popular man in German
politics.
直到来自巴伐利亚姊妹党基督教社会联盟的马库斯 · 索德加入竞选。索德尔可以说是德
国政坛最受欢迎的人物。
“It has always been clear that the race to Angela Merkel’s succession will
be long and will not follow a straight line. It might not be a blockbuster
movie but rather a binge-viewing-worthy political series,” Carsten Brzeski,
chief economist at ING Germany, said in a note on Tuesday.
“安格拉‧默克尔(Angela Merkel)接班人的竞争将会很漫长，而且不会走直线，这一点
一直是明确的。荷兰国际集团(ING Germany)首席经济学家卡斯滕‧布尔泽斯基(Carsten
Brzeski)在周二的一份报告中表示: “这部电影可能不是一部轰动一时的电影，而是一部
值得一看的政治连续剧。”。
Party leader or Mr Popularity 党的领导人或者人气先生
When it comes to federal elections, the CDU and CSU act together — and so
will only field one candidate.
在联邦选举中，基督教民主联盟和基督教社会联盟共同行动，因此只会推出一名候选人。
CDU lawmakers will discuss who that should be on Tuesday and hope to come to
a decision this week. But it will be a difficult choice between their party
leader and someone as popular as Soeder.
基督教民主联盟的立法者们将在周二讨论谁将担任总统，并希望在本周做出决定。但是，
在他们的党派领袖和像索德这样受欢迎的人之间，将是一个艰难的选择。
Elisabeth Motschmann, a lawmaker for the CDU, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe
on Tuesday that she supports Soeder.
基督教民主联盟的立法者伊丽莎白 · 莫茨曼周二告诉 CNBC 的 Squawk Box 欧洲频道，
她支持索德。
“For this very hard job, I think that Markus Soeder will do his best and is
able to win,” she said. “I don’t think that (Laschet) would be hard enough
and he can’t decide like Soeder.”
她说: “对于这项艰巨的工作，我认为马库斯 · 索德尔将会尽最大努力赢得比赛。”。
“我不认为(拉谢特)会很难，他不能像索德那样做出决定。”
Jens Suedekum, professor at Dusseldorf Institute for Competition Economics,
told CNBC via email that, “what characterizes Soeder is his unique degree of
flexibility, you may call it opportunism, when it comes to political
principles.”
杜塞尔多夫竞争经济研究所(Dusseldorf Institute for Competition Economics)教授延
斯 · 苏德库姆(Jens Suedekum)通过电子邮件告诉 CNBC，“苏德的特点是他独特的灵活
度，在涉及政治原则时，你可以称之为机会主义。”
Germany’s conservative party has seen its popularity fall since January,
when the coronavirus pandemic began to worsen in the country.
自今年1月冠状病毒开始在德国蔓延以来，德国保守党的支持率一直在下降。
It is finally set to harmonize lockdown rules in an effort to contain a third
wave of cases. This comes after the population expressed frustration at how
the rules have differed from region to region ever since the initial outbreak
of the Covid-19.
为了遏制第三波案件，最终将协调禁闭规则。在这之前，人们对于自从2019冠状病毒疾病
疫情爆发以来各个地区规则的不同表示失望。
Vaccination boost 疫苗接种
But things could be about to look up for the conservatives.
但保守派的形势可能会好转。
“Once the CDU/CSU’s official election campaign starts in full force and
vaccinations ramp up, things will look better for them,” Naz Masraff,
director at consultancy firm Eurasia Group, said in a note on Tuesday.
咨询公司欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)董事纳兹‧马斯拉夫(Naz Masraff)周二在一份报告中
表示: “一旦基督教民主联盟/基督教社会联盟(CDU/CSU)的正式竞选活动开始全面展开，
疫苗接种量也开始增加，情况对他们来说就会好转。”。
However, she stressed that Laschet would likely have a more difficult time
consolidating the CDU/CSU’s voter base and winning back centrist voters from
the Green party.
不过，她强调，拉谢特很可能在巩固基民盟/基社联的选民基础和从绿党赢回中间派选民
方面遇到更多困难。
Laschet’s candidacy would benefit the Greens and the Social Democrats. It
would also increase the chances of a Green chancellor after September’s
elections. 拉谢特的候选人资格将有利于绿党和社会民主党。这也将增加九月份选举后
绿党总理的机会
“He will also have to work hard to change his image as a weak and
equivocating leader who hasn’t taken as strong a line on the pandemic, or on
corruption in the party’s ranks, as many Germans expected,” Masraff added.
马斯拉夫补充说，“他还必须努力改变自己的形象，即作为一个软弱、模棱两可的领导人
，在这场流行病或党内腐败问题上没有像许多德国人预期的那样采取强硬路线。”。
Whoever the CDU chooses to be its running candidate could ultimately have an
impact on what kind of coalition will emerge in September.
无论基民盟选择谁作为其竞选候选人，最终都可能对9月份将出现的联合政府产生影响。
“Laschet’s candidacy would benefit the Greens and the Social Democrats. It
would also increase the chances of a Green chancellor after September’s
elections,” Masraff said.
“拉谢特的候选资格将有利于绿党和社会民主党。这也将增加9月大选后绿党总理产生的
机会。”。
心得:
索德高人气似乎更有机会成为接班人