ESPN记者Kiley McDaniel一年一度的FA预测
https://reurl.cc/aM5MmY
年份 总额 入札金
5.今井达也 6年 135M 22.125M
10.村上宗隆 5年 80M 13.875M
21.冈本和真 3年 36M 6.925M
Kiley McDaniel给的评语
今井达也
Imai likely gets the biggest deal of any foreign professional this winter and is
more of a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter with some risk to get there than a poten
tial ace, but his age and the lack of a qualifying offer will help bring up the
amount teams are willing to pay for him. Imai will be subject to the posting sys
tem; the posting fee for this projected contract would be just over $22 million,
paid to his NPB club, for an all-in cost of just over $157 million ($26.2M AAV)
.
今井很可能会成为今年冬天所有海外球员中拿到最大合约的那一位，虽然他更像是一名稳定
的二号或三号先发投手，而非潜力十足的王牌，但他的年龄以及身上没QO，将让各队愿意开
出更高金额
A big selling point on Imai is his cratering walk rate, going from a BB/9 of 5.1
to 4.1 to 3.6 to 2.5 over the past four seasons, punctuated by his 2025 line: 1
63⅔ IP and a 1.92 ERA. Imai is 5-foot-11 and throws from a lower slot, so he cr
eates a flat plane, excellent for swings and misses at the top of the zone for h
is 93-97 mph four-seam fastball that hit 99 mph last season. His miss rate on th
e pitch wasn't elite because he didn't throw it at the top of the zone very ofte
n, but that's something that can be fine-tuned in the big leagues.
今井的一大卖点，是他逐年明显改善的保送率
过去四年他的BB/9从 5.1 → 4.1 → 3.6 → 2.5，进步幅度惊人
2025年他投出163又2/3局、防御率1.92的成绩
今井身高约180 公分，采用较低的投球出手点，因此能制造出平坦的投球轨迹，这让他的四
缝线快速球（93–97英里，最高达99英里）在好球带上缘非常具有挥空效果
不过他的这颗速球挥空率尚未达到顶级水准，主要是因为他并不常把球投在上缘；这部分进
入大联盟后仍有微调空间
Imai has an above-average splitter, but his slider is a more interesting topic.
His slider doesn't slide: It averages arm-side movement, like Trey Yesavage's, s
o it can be an effective pitch even if it's unusual to see (especially when pair
ed with a splitter and above-average fastball velocity, like Yesavage does). The
re's some conventional wisdom in baseball that a backup slider is the best pitch
in baseball (because nobody knows when a pitcher will misthrow the pitch like t
hat), but that's meant as a one-off, not a recurring quality to shoot for.
今井的指叉球品质在平均之上，但更值得注意的是他的滑球
他的滑球其实“不太滑”，反而平均有向投手手臂方向（arm-side）的移动，类似Trey Yes
avage的滑球，虽然这样的球路不太常见，但当与指叉球和高于平均的速球结合时，能形成
相当有效的配球组合
棒球界有句戏言：“最强的滑球是失投的滑球”，因为打者根本预测不到那种误差，但这句
话通常是玩笑，并不是投手应该刻意追求的特性
You could question Imai's size or fastball miss rate or shorter track record of
elite command, but the biggest concern teams have is if his slider will play in
the big leagues for the long term. It played well this season, with a 45% miss r
ate and .212 xwOBA, both well better than MLB average for a slider. These qualit
ies add up to both uniqueness in Imai's shapes and release traits as well as adj
ustability due to his improving command: Some teams see these two qualities as t
he secret to projecting longevity and improvement with pitchers.
外界可能会质疑今井的体格、速球挥空率，或是他顶级控球能力的样本仍不够长，但球团最
大的疑虑在于——他的滑球是否能在大联盟长期发挥作用
今年这颗滑球表现优异，挥空率达 45%，预期加权上垒率（xwOBA）仅 .212，远优于MLB平
均
这些特质显示出今井在球质变化与出手机制上的独特性，再加上不断提升的控球能力，使他
具备可调整性与成长潜力；部分球队甚至认为这正是评估投手长期稳定与进步的关键
Every team would love to land a steady midrotation starter on a deal where half
of it will take place in his 20s. If I miss this projection by $25 million or mo
re, it'll probably be because he got more money, not less.
任何球队都梦想能签下一位正值巅峰期、能稳定担任先发轮值中段的投手
若这份合约最终与预测金额相差超过 2,500万美元，那极可能是因为他拿得更多，而非更少
村上宗隆
Murakami missed being age-eligible to be posted last winter by a few months. His
posting process has been anticipated since he burst onto the scene in 2022 and
hit 56 home runs in his age-22 season in Japan. Since then, a combination of inj
uries, positional questions and contact issues has dampened evaluators' enthusia
sm a bit.
自他在 2022 年以22岁之龄在日本击出 56 支全垒打、震撼球界以来，他的入札挑战美职就
备受期待
不过，随着近年出现的伤病、守备位置疑虑，以及contact问题，外界对他的评价热度略有
下降
On the bright side, Murakami is a left-handed hitter with massive raw power: His
90th percentile exit velos would've been fifth in MLB, his maximum exit velo wo
uld be 12th and his hard-hit rate would be first. On the other hand, he's probab
ly a long-term first baseman (but hasn't really played there before), his contac
t rates would be among the worst in MLB and he has faced lesser velocity in NPB.
Some evaluators think his contact rate could improve

22M应该够补很多洞吧？感觉放人值得

山本的表现让今井吃到红利

22M可以分给安可多少？

村上那种盲泡给50M都偏高吧

投手还是最值钱

ESPN反而认为今井是今年日职旅美的最大咖阿，但却实稳定的中段+都是各队需要的

今井现在卖相超好 而且他这种类型大联盟最爱现在也证明了 一级日职投手基本可以站稳大联盟希望白喵拿卖他的大钱好好去补一些重砲今年那种团队防御率竟然没A段班 就知道打击多悲剧

22M差不多33e日币了，反观高桥光成0人在乎XD

今井是不是要感谢道奇三兄弟季后赛又多抬了价XD

看起来今井能被归类成山本型的投手？

5年80M 又没多高...这也能酸xd

今井速度够三振能力又好，价格高蛮正常的他就是标准那种去美国会成功的日本投手

今井的滑球真的很特别

钱太香了 难怪西武要放

冈本感觉划算

如果梅子没签回Alonso 这个价格应该会出手

今井那么少？

Manzardo是低标 村上很被看好欸

22M很多了吧

今井卖相真的赞 西武赚～

主要是因为是日本投手吧 刚好有山本让大家信心大增?!

感觉价格会被抬到更高

山本丢这么好 肯定有拉抬作用

洋基该认真抢今井了吧 不然纽媒又要生气了

日本大投手除了去洋基的表现两极化以外，大部分都不错

同城那个缺投手的会砸更凶吧

今井这种型态应该可以适应美国啦

另个原因是在MLB能称得上速球的日投先发所剩无几了

今井有比今永强那么多?

今井合约如果只有6年 应该不太可能只有这样而且他找的经纪人是大名鼎鼎的吸血鬼Boras看他能把这张合约拉到多高了

波拉斯喔? 那感觉合约有机会抬很高XDDD

今永去都30岁了

村上大概是舒服哥等级，你会花100M买舒服哥？

想签金永可能要先问道奇给不给吧洋基在Rice打出来之前应该对村上有兴趣 现在有Rice了 希望别又搞

今永明年33岁，道奇目前阵容就够老了，再签一个日本崔南干嘛

那当然抢冈本和今井

陈王虎只要一半不到 6年 65M就好

村上这么年轻有潜力 拿舒服哥比疯了吧

乱猜三个选手至少有一个会去梅子 XD

怎么每次交易就会有一堆酸民想被打脸 %%%脸一直被打真的都学不乖当然也不能保证他们就一定怎样 但年轻就是本钱 还没打过谁知道几年后谁能适应进化但一堆人拿28 32岁的去比25岁的村上实在看不懂

村上看起来MLB球队是不担心他锯砲 他的击球初速跟挥棒速度都是顶的只要挥得到球XD

村上的优点就是年轻会觉得还有空间成长 一堆人拿30+老人来比？？？

舒服哥...有理由不看好 但这版一堆瞎黑的

今井27岁阿 年龄就是优势村上也是看他25岁有未来成长空间 所以虽然盲&守备差 价码就是比冈本好

李政厚那成绩跟在韩国刷都有破亿了，村上怎样都是日本顶尖打者，守位扣分80M一定有吧

难说 现在风向看起来是日本投手吃香 日本打者目前就诚也比较稳定 吉田要轮DH出场比较少

村上如果挥不到球一直吃k 再快初速都是纸上谈兵

是说小熊哪来的位置给村上？一垒不可能给他阿

球团应该是不会想花几千万美金签一个还在“成长”的新秀

可能预期还要养吧 阿灾

他是会选球的不是盲 Contact差有机会被美国修好 年轻值得投资

因为他今年的数据比起去年下滑 所以才会有怀疑他能否再成长的声音吧

总之预测价码和最终价码可能差不多 要再拉上的空间不大就是挤位置出来给他 或是填空？

看小熊怎么评价Ballesteros 如果没签FA预期应该是他

村上和冈本差太多了吧

比起日投，日本打者适应不良的机会更高没错，但村上的年纪和power就摆在那，一定有球队会想赌

村上那么盲签下去赌很大

日打比日投差远了

看这次WBC了验货时间

日投有山本拉抬价格以后价格拉超高也合理，今井今年那成绩也是够杀

冈本快30了喔...不知不觉

山本可是三届泽村赏 表示日本最强投手无误

村上近几年有点被看破手脚，觉得签过去要练一季

村上本应向上的成长曲线 在22-25这年纪表现反常逐年下滑

舒你老师勒 舒服哥