楼主:
polanco (polanco)
2023-11-05 14:01:13来源：https://atmlb.com/47kVQsu
潜在下家：天使、道奇、巨人、水手、大都会、教士、游骑兵、红袜
官网猜这八队选一，理由大概都跟别家媒体讲得差不多
觉得比较有趣的是后面对于大谷作为自由球员的分析
SCOUT’S TAKE 球探观点
“A generational talent who is a superstar as a hitter and pitcher, his free age
ncy is unlike anything we have ever seen. Because of his injury, the value on th
e mound needs to be discounted, not only because he won’t contribute in that as
pect next year, but also the longer-term risk associated with coming back from a
second UCL surgery. Because the contributions on the mound are more difficult t
o project, I believe most teams will have to focus their investment parameters o
n Ohtani the hitter, where his top-of-the-scale strength makes him a unique play
er who can hit and hit for power in the middle of a championship lineup.
这部分提及大谷的天份是整个世代难得一见的，无论投打都是超级明星，也让他成为独一无
二的自由球员。
不过受伤导致他的投球价值减损，不只是因为他明年不能投，还有两次韧带重建手术带来的
风险。而由于未来的投球贡献难以评估，这位球探相信大多数球队会将重点集中在打者大谷
身上，能够兼顾打击率以及长打力量的独特能力使他足以担任争冠球队的中心打者。
“Shohei is a tremendous athlete who clearly takes care of his body and should a
ge well. The only concern from an offensive standpoint is that there is some zon
e expansion and swing/miss at times, but it is easily offset by top-of-the-scale
power production. The contributions at DH alone are special enough to receive c
onsideration for a mega-deal, but factor in the interest from big-market clubs a
nd potential impact on the mound once fully healthy and who knows how far owners
might be willing to go to add a future Hall of Famer.”
大谷有着顶尖的运动能力而且很照顾自己的身体，所以应该会老化的比较慢。在打击上唯一
能挑剔的只有偶尔会放大好球带并且挥空，不过顶级长打产能就能抵消这个小缺点。
单纯看大谷担任DH的贡献就足以让他拿到大约，然后还要考虑大市场球队的兴趣以及大谷未
来健康重返投手丘的潜在价值，谁知道老板愿意花多少来引进一名未来的名人堂球员。
BUYER BEWARE 买家注意
This is the part where we point out a flaw in the free agent’s game. Umm. Right
. Sure, Ohtani was in the bottom 12th percentile in whiff rate last season and h
is strikeout rate was in the bottom third of the league, but are we really going
to nitpick those stats? If there’s anything to make potential suitors hesitate
to shell out big bucks for Ohtani, it’s that he’s had two Tommy John surgerie
s in five years. Ohtani plans to return to the mound in 2025, but until he’s ba
ck out there mowing down opposing hitters, there will be some question as to whe
ther he can return to his dominant form.
这段是分析缺点的部分，提到了今年打者大谷的挥空率（PR值只有12）以及被三振率（大约
落在联盟后三分之一），不过作者不觉得这是什么大问题。
他认为买家会犹豫的点在于大谷五年内动了两次TJ手术，虽然预定会在2025年回归投手丘，
但只有到了实战面对打者的时候我们才能知道大谷能不能找回过去的宰制力。
FOR COMP'S SAKE 身价模板
There’s no way to find a good comp for Ohtani, who is doing things no player ha
s ever done before. Based purely on his offense, Ohtani figures to be worth at l
east as much as Judge, who signed a nine-year, $360 million deal to return to th
e Yankees last winter. Whether Ohtani