CPHC在报文中表示霍涅有可能跨线 但原则上还是认定在跨线前消散机率较大
It should be noted that Hone or its remnants could become involved with a
large mid- to upper-level low near the International Dateline at about 120 h,
with the global models showing a surface low in the area. Currently, it is
not clear whether if this low is Hone or a new formation, and until there is
more clarity, the forecast continues to show Hone dissipating by this time.
主要参考资料是GFS
https://i.meee.com.tw/XizQYiD.png
EC似乎不支持这个系统了
https://i.meee.com.tw/kOQUI94.png
向日葵九号已经可以看到他了 基本上还是有对流在维持结构
https://i.meee.com.tw/xaZy70e.jpg
霍涅所在的地区风切仍然很大 但看起来再撑一阵子没被切死就还好了
https://i.meee.com.tw/HfkDjZR.png
同样地，再撑一阵子就能到暖水区了
https://i.meee.com.tw/1RhPvQU.png
如果真的撑过去了，估计又会活过来了
感觉是可以观察的系统