JTWC 90W TCFA
http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9018.gif
▲ 远洋货，昨天(29/2100Z)是朝东北东方向前进。
原文如下：[ http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9018web.txt ]
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WTPN21 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.2N 152.9E TO 32.9N 153.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
291900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N
153.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 27.5N
148.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
REVEALS THERE IS WEAK CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WHICH IS
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM'S INITIAL
POSITION DUE TO A POORLY DEFINED LLCC AND LACK OF VISIBLE IMAGERY. A
281741Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
DEPICTING THE WEAK CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE AND A DISORGANIZED
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS ALL DISPLAY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM BUT DIFFER ON
TIMING. NAVGEM AND GFS ARE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WITH
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH JGSM, ECMWF, AND
UKMET SHOWING DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302100Z.//
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