http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9317web.txt
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9317.gif
WTPN22 PGTW 182030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 15.3N 149.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 147.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1N 145.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY
670 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 181536Z 89GHZ AMSR-2 MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH, WITH
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KT), WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS FUELING DEEP CONVECTION.
SSTS ARE FAVORABLE, IN THE 30-31C RANGE. GLOBAL MODEL TRACK AND
INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME
MODELS PREDICT AN EASTWARD TRACK, TURNING NORTHWARD THEN RECURVING,
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. OTHERS PREDICT SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION
AND LITTLE TO NO CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
192030Z.//
NNNN
继兰恩西侧扰动升格成26W之后，东侧的扰动也发出了TCFA，
老J认为虽然垂直风切不友善，
但整体高空环境加上超过30度的海表面温度仍支持进一步发展。
尽管老J认为26W能加强到至少热带风暴强度，不过EC对26W和93W的反应都很微弱。