http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9115web.txt
WTPN21 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 111.8E TO 18.5N 110.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 111.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1N
112.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 111.6E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
BANDING, ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ELONGATED LLCC. A 202257Z WINDSAT IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE MAJORITY OF
WINDS NOT LOCATED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION ARE BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT OFF-
SETTING THE 10 TO 20 KNOTS OF VWS. MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS MARGINAL, DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS AN EFFECT OF THE SURGE EVENT
OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON
IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210300Z.//
NNNN
定位似乎往西调整
明显季风低压的外强中干特征，但与多数季风低压相比较无多中心的问题
数值后期因副高西伸而跑出路径未来西北折。
对台无直接影响，做为2015年台风旺季开端的象征意义较大，
但环流庞大仍可能造成西半部和外岛天气不稳定。
http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/a.html
热帯低気圧
平成27年06月20日16时15分 発表
<20日15时の実况>
大きさ -
强さ -
热帯低気圧
存在地域 南シナ海
中心位置 北纬 15度20分(15.3度)
东経 111度50分(111.8度)
进行方向、速さ 北北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大风速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬间风速 23m/s(45kt)
<21日15时の予报>
强さ -
存在地域 南シナ海
予报円の中心 北纬 17度25分(17.4度)
东経 111度50分(111.8度)
进行方向、速さ 北 ゆっくり
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大风速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬间风速 25m/s(50kt)
予报円の半径 220km(120NM)