原文:https://deanondraft.com/2017/06/24/2018-preview-is-michael-porter-a-future-nba-star/
＊这是Dean Demakis在6月时的旧文了，虽然这观察仅就Nike Hoop高峰赛事的观
察来看Michae Porter Jr也不是特别有洞见，但因为他的身分(他是一个运动赌
徒)与和主流意见显然不同的看法所以还是转录一下，仅略译提到Porter与
Doncic的部分
2018 Preview: Is Michael Porter a Future NBA Star?
Now that the 2017 draft is over, attention shifts to 2018 where
Michael Porter Jr. is battling Luka Doncic for #1 overall, where
league executives are allegedly split. I decided to get a taste of
Michael Porter Jr. by watching the Nike Hoop Summit where he led team
USA with 19 points.
Michael Porter Jr. Scouting Report
Michael Porter Jr. 球探报告
Porter is a 6’10” knockdown shooter who rebounds well and has decent
athleticism. So it is easy to see why he is labeled as a possible #1,
as that baseline of skill makes it sound like he has Kevin Durant
upside.
Porter是一个6'10有着不错体能与篮板能力的射手，所以会被视为可能的状元人
选是很正常的，毕竟基本能力听起来就像有KD的上限一样
But his warts are apparent in watching him play. He is not
particularly smooth, explosive, or advanced with the handle so he
struggled to get by defenders and often drove directly into the crowd
and hoisted some awkward looking shots. On several occasions he was
able to flail and draw free throws, but it appears that and pulling up
for jumpers are the only creation he can muster off the dribble.
但是他的问题在看他比赛时很明显，他处理球不是特别流畅、有爆发性或突出，
所以在应付防守者时有困难，常直直杀到人群中后勉强出手。有些时候他憢幸得
到罚球机会，但看起来急停跳投是他运球时唯一能使用的武器
He does not have good passing instincts, as while he is a willing
passer it is with the objective of moving the ball rather than setting
up a teammate. For all of the goodness that his shooting presents on
offense, his shaky instincts shown in his slashing and passing are
going to detract from his shooting goodness.
他没有好的传球本能，虽然他愿意传但那是出于帮助球的流动而不是帮队友创造
机会，他不怎么样的切入与传球本领让他的投射能力失色不少
Defensively he has the size and mobility to make an occasional play,
but his awareness is not great as he had lapses where he got caught
watching the ball or out of position. On the upside has has great
height and moves well and was able to use his tools be useful at times
, so it is difficult to judge his defense as either good or bad based
on this game. But based on his limited instincts he does not appear to
be a stopper on this end and has clear downside.
防守上因为他有尺寸与移动能力所以偶尔有些亮点，但他的意识不是特别出色在
好几回合当监视器或根本失位。就上限来说有时候他能利用不错的高度与移动能
力并妥善利用他的优势，所以只看一场比赛很难看出他的防守是好是坏。但是出
于有限的本能他看起来不会成为一个大锁且防守上明显是个劣势
Overall Sentiment
综合感受
Porter strongly reminisces of my first time viewing Andrew Wiggins,
where it stunned me that people viewed him as a tanking candidate.
They have a number of marked similarities as prospects, as Porter
essentially has two inches of height and better shooting in lieu of
Wiggins’ otherworldly athleticism.
Porter强烈的让我想起第一眼看到Andrew Wiggins时，人们把他视为开坦的目标
，这真是吓坏我惹。他们有好些相似处，只不过Porter高一些投篮好一点，而
Wiggins有外星人体能罢了
This was just one game, and I cannot yet rule out that he will be good
. But elite stars normally stand out to my eye immediately: Joel
Embiid and Lonzo Ball were love at first sight, and Karl Anthony Towns
, Ben Simmons, and Markelle Fultz were extremely attractive at first
blush (even if I have my doubts about the latter two, their talent is
undeniable).
这只不过是一场比赛，我不能排除他成功的可能性。但精英球星通常第一印象马
上就令我眼界大开: Joel Embiid与Lonzo Ball就是这样，KAT、Ben Simmons与
Markelle Fultz第一眼也超吸睛的(虽然我对后两位有些怀疑，但他们的天赋是
不能否认的)
Porter is in a class with Andrew Wiggins of putting me in shock that
people can look at a prospect like this and somehow believe he is
better than prospects like Luka Doncic or Lonzo Ball. I would bet
every dollar I own that he is not.
Porter与Wiggins让我震惊的就是人们看着他们这样的prospect居然认为他们会
比Luka Doncic或Lonzo Ball还要好，我会跟人赌身家他不是这样
I am not going to call him a likely bust based on a one game eye test,
as Andrew Wiggins could have been pretty good if he was able to
develop better from his rookie year. But it is difficult to argue that
the hype machine be given any benefit of the doubt to treat Porter as
anything remotely special this early.
我不会只因为一场比赛就说他很有可能是水货，毕竟Wiggins如果在新人年养成
的好些的话也许他已经相当出色了。但是宣传这么早就在吹捧Porter多么独一无
二并没有什么好处
No Proof of Goodness Means More Downside
没有证据证明优点意谓著更多的缺点
1251047
The fact of the matter is that the draft hype machine has not exactly
been nailing NCAA top 3’s a year ahead of time lately
事实上宣传机器近年来在提前一年预言NCAA前三顺位其实不怎么厉害
2014: Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Julius Randle
2015: Jahlil Okafor, Emmanuel Mudiay, Stanley Johnson
2016: Ben Simmons, Skal Labissiere, Jaylen Brown
2017: Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, Josh Jackson
8 of those 12 have playing at least one NBA season, and all look
disappointing relative to hype. Simmons, Tatum, and Jackson are the
only ones with clear star potential, and none of them are guarantees.
12位中有8个至少打了一个赛季，且看起来都较谣言要令人失望。Simmons、
Tatum与Jackson是唯一有明显的球星潜质的，然而都还未有保证(文章完成在
2017年6月)
If you randomly select a player from this pile, he is more likely than
not to be an ordinary, meh NBA player. It is extremely difficult to
predict NBA success without observation vs. NCAA or professional
competition. Intuitively Porter, Ayton, and Bamba do not seem any
better than prior early top 3’s, and are each more likely to be below
average NBA players than good starters.
如果你从上述名单随机挑一个球员，很可能他更有机会像是一个普通NBA球员。
在没有经过NCAA与职业层级对抗的观察，要预测NBA成功的可能性是很难的。直
觉上来说Porter、Ayton与Bamba没有比前一梯TOP3要好，且更有可能达不到出色
先发的水准(低于联盟平均)
How Does Porter Compare to 2017?
与2017比较起来?
Everybody who thinks Porter should go #1 in 2017 is crazy. It would be
terrible if any of Porter, Ayton, or Bamba were chosen in this year’s
top 6, as it was a especially good top 6 (Fultz, Ball, Tatum, Jackson,
Fox, Isaac) who all showed strong potential vs. NCAA competition
compared to 19 y/o’s who have been feasting on 17 and 18 y/o’s.
任何人会以为Porter放在2017应该是状元，那他一定是疯了。如果Porter、
Ayton或Bamba任何一个在今年前6被选上那就太可怕了，因为今年前6非常的出色
(Fultz、Ball、Tatum、Jackson、Fox、Isaac)且在对抗NCAA对手时表现出强烈
的潜力，而不是在19岁时还在霸凌17、8岁的对手
I would also take Real Madrid star Luka Doncic over all 3 prospects
combined, as he has been one of the best players in the second best
professional league behind the NBA, all at a younger age than these
guys as high school seniors. It may seem crazy now, but in a few years
it will not.
我也会为了选皇马的Luka Doncic而跳过所有前三新秀，他已经在NBA外世上第二
好的联盟成为最佳球员，甚至比这些家伙在高中最后一年时还年轻。这现在看
起来也许很狂，但几年后可能就不是这样了
I know these are many piping hot takes at once, but if nothing else
they will be fun to re-visit in a few years. On to the rankings:
我知道这些是同时期炙手可势的人选，但若无意外几年后再来回顾他们应该会很
有趣。
Tier 1: Basketball God
第一级: 篮球之神
1. Luka Doncic 6’8〃 Real Madrid
I still need to watch him before singing his praises too loudly, but
he is 6’8〃, athletic, super skilled, and smart and has clear
GOAT potential. It is difficult to see him failing, and there is no
reasonable argument that anybody else should even sniff #1.
在高分贝造神前我还是需要多观察些他，但他有6'8，有体能(译:这不太认同)，
技巧超级熟练，而且聪明又有明显的史上最佳潜力，他要失败真是有点难，理智
上没有其它人能成为状元的原因
Tier 2: Regular Basketball Players
第二级: 普通篮球员
2. Collin Sexton, 6’2〃 Freshman, Alabama
Sexton is the only player in the Hoop Summit who glowed to my eye. He
is incredibly athletic, smooth, and shifty, and has strong potential
as a slasher. He also showed legitimate passing and vision, and can be
a pest on defense and was willing to battle with bigs for rebounds.
It is difficult to get too excited for a 6’2〃 player this far
from the draft, and Sexton does seem to be a risk of taking poor shots
and over gambling on defense. But he is the only player in the Hoop
Summit who looked like a possible future star, so he gets my #2 slot.
3. Wendell Carter, 6’10” Freshman, Duke
Carter was more quiet than I had hoped in the Hoop Summit, but it is
still easy to see him being good. He has a 7’3〃+ wingspan which
gives him potential to play center in the NBA, and he seems to be
above average at everything.
The main thing holding him back from top 3 hype is lack of elite
explosiveness, but he is a good, well rounded basketball player who is
almost a year younger than each of Ayton, Bamba, and Porter.
4. DeAndre Ayton, 7’0〃 Freshman, Arizona
Ayton did not play in the Hoop Summit, so my eyes have yet to qualify
him. I have my doubts about him as he has a reputation for not caring
a ton, but he has monster height and a 7’5〃 wingspan with real
talent, so I will see how he looks for Arizona before passing firm
judgment.
5. Mohamed Bamba, 7’0〃 Freshman, Texas
Bamba has a 7’9〃 wingspan and projects to be a force
defensively, and he did look impressive on that end at the Hoop Summit
. Unfortunately, he looked like a zero offensively as he cannot handle
and his touch around the rim looked bad.
On the upside he can make FT’s and the announcers were saying his
touch is normally good, so if he can at least make shots offensively
he has upside to be a Rudy Gobert or Tyson Chandler type.
6. Michael Porter Jr., 6’10” Freshman, Missouri
As I have detailed, I do not believe he is great. Maybe he is
nevertheless good, but at this juncture there is no compelling reason
to believe that he is anything other than an ordinary top 10 prospect.
同我已详述的，我不相信他有特别出色，也许他仍然算不错，但在目前来说没有
具说服力的理由去相信他会比普通前十新秀出色
That said this is a low confidence opinion, and it will be easier to
have a grasp on him when he plays for Missouri. By draft time it is
possible I will move him up into the top 3, or he may be out of the
top 10. It could go either way.
这样说不太可信，所以等他到密苏里打球时会更清楚他的状况。选秀时他也许会
在我的TOP3或前十外，都有可能(译:有点废话 XDD)
7. Ethan Happ, 6’9〃 Junior, Wisconsin
Happ hardly has any draft hype, as he is only ranked 36th on
DraftExpress. The knock on him is that he is a traditional white PF
who cannot shoot and lacks explosive athleticism, so he is getting
overlooked as a draft prospect.
But people are wrong to overlook him, as he is a stud at everything
but shooting. He may not be a leaper but he moves his feet well, and
at 6’9〃 he is an elite handler, passer, rebounder, and
defensive player who excels at everything except scoring from a
distance. At age 21 with a 57% FT you have to be worried about his
shot, and it is genuinely a major wart.
But given how elite the rest of his profile is, I would happily gamble
on it all working out.
8. DeAnthony Melton, 6’4〃 Sophomore, USC
DeAnthony Melton completely stuffed the statsheet as an 18 year old
freshman, as he racked up rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. He
has exceptional instincts to go with great length and quickness, and
has the foundation to be a star combo guard.
The downside is that he still has a long way to go to fit in
offensively as he posted just a 33rd percentile half court efficiency
on low usage as a freshman. He still is not a reliable 3P shooter at
28% and he cannot yet create against a set defense.
If Melton makes a major offensive leap as a sophomore he has star
upside, otherwise he is an intriguing role player.
While Melton and Happ have their share of flaws, they also have unique
strengths to help them overcome. Don’t be surprised when one of the
duo is a better pro than Michael Porter Jr.
9. Robert Williams, 6’9〃 Sophomore, Texas A&M
The Aggies had no point guard this past season and all of their
returners badly regressed. Now that they have help at the position,
Williams who excels at moving off the ball and finishing may see a big
sophomore breakout.
10. Miles Bridges, 6’6〃 Sophomore, Michigan St.
Bridges is smooth and athletic, and coming off a good freshman season
for Michigan State where he did a bit of everything.
The only worry with Bridges is that his dimensions are a bit weak as
he last measured 6’6.25〃 with a 6’8.75〃 wingspan. Given
that he also had a mediocre efficiency, he will have extra worry about
his ability to be an efficient NBA player without better combine
measurements.
11. Jarred Vanderbilt, 6’9〃 Freshman, Kentucky
Vanderbilt was the surprise star of the Hoop Summit, and he has strong
feel for the game with excellent rebounding and passing. He also is
able to make plays on defense and is one of the younger members of the
class having recently turned 18.
His downside is that he is a poor shooter, and does not look like an
elite defensive stopper to make his shot worth stomaching. But I would
nevertheless not be surprised if he emerges as the best freshman in
the class.
12. Jaren Jackson Jr., 6’10” Freshman, Michigan St.
Jackson is still just 17 and has good physical tools for a big, and
made a number of impressive finishes and defensive plays in the Hoop
Summit. He also has traces of an outside shot, and is another player
who has potential to climb my board by the draft. While the freshman
class lacks a likely star, there is a significant cluster of players
that have a chance of shining in NCAA.
I only have Jackson 12th because he appears to be a role player with
questionable instincts, but he could just as easily be argued to be
much higher.
13. Troy Brown, 6’6〃 Freshman, Oregon
Brown is the super role player of the class, as he has a 6’11”
wingspan and made some impressive passes for a wing in the Hoop Summit
. He also competed and moved his feet well defensively and at 17 is
one of the youngest players in the class.
He is a prototypical 3 + D wing, as his only weaknesses are lack of
elite athleticism and scoring ability. This does inhibit his upside,
but if teams pay this too much attention he could be a steal in the
back end of the lottery.
Overall I believe the freshman class should be seen as 5 good but not
great prospects battling for #2 (Sexton, Carter, Ayton, Bamba, Porter)
with Vanderbilt, Jackson, and Brown right behind them as role players
with sneaky potential.
Tier 3: The Rest
14. Mikal Bridges, 6’8〃 Junior, Villanova
15. Bruce Brown, 6’4〃 Sophomore, Miami FL
16. Andrew Jones, 6’4〃 Sophomore, Texas
17. Hamidou Diallo, 6’5〃 Freshman, Kentucky
18. Emmanuel Akot, 6’8〃 Freshman, Arizona
19. Mitchell Robinson, 6’11” Freshman, Western Kentucky
20. Markis McDuffie, 6’8〃 Junior, Wichita St.
21. Jacob Evans, 6’6〃 Junior, Cincinnati
22. Rawle Alkins, 6’5〃 Sophomore, Arizona
23. Tyler Hall, 6’4〃 Junior, Montana St.
24. Shamorie Ponds, 6’0〃 Sophomore, St. John’s
25. Gary Clark, 6’7〃 Senior, Cincinnati
26. Trent Forrest, 6’5〃 Sophomore, Florida St.
27. Bryant Crawford, 6’3〃 Junior, Wake Forest
28. John Petty, 6’6〃 Freshman, Alabama
29. Kevin Huerter, 6’6〃 Sophomore, Maryland
30. Kevin Hervey, 6’7〃 Senior, UT Arlington