原文网址:
http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/02/26/sportvu-uncontested-jumpers-vs-okc/
In our Q and A at All-Star weekend, Oklahoma City Thunder coach Scott Brooks
said that when his team is on defense, he’s “concerned about making sure
that every shot is contested.”
Contesting every shot is impossible, but Brooks’ team certainly can do a
better job. According to SportVU, no team has contested a lower percentage of
its opponents’ jump shots than the Thunder . They’ve contested just 24
percent of opponent jumpers, a mark well below the league average of 31
percent.
奥克拉荷马雷霆的总教练Scott Brooks在全明星周末接受访问时表示，他对防守最重视的
是让每个投篮都被干扰到。
基本上这是不可能的，但Brooks无疑还有要求的空间。根据SportVU的统计，针对跳投的
防守，找不到比雷霆更差的球队了。他们仅仅跟上了对手24%的跳投，远低于联盟的平均
值31%。
SportVU defines a jump shot as any shot out outside of 10 feet. It’s
contested if a defender is within four feet of the shooter.
There’s a much stronger correlation between defensive efficiency and
opponent effective field-goal percentage (EFG%) than between defensive
efficiency and any of the other “four factors” (rebounding, forcing
turnovers, keeping opponents off the free-throw line).
事先说明一下，SportVU定义10呎外的出手为跳投，而投篮者的4呎内有守方球员便算是防
守到位(contested)。
在防守四要素里，对手的有效命中率(eFG%)和防守效率(DefRtg%)有最强的相关性。(其他
三项为对手的进攻篮板率OREB%，失误率TO Ratio和罚球投篮比FTA Rate。)
Here’s the thing, though. The Thunder rank fourth in opponent EFG% and
fourth in defensive efficiency. They’ve been a great defensive team — even
though they haven’t contested jump shots very well. There is a correlation
between the percentage of jumpers a team contests and its opponents’ EFG%
(and in turn, their defensive efficiency). The Thunder are an outlier.
不过重点来了，雷霆对手的有效命中率和他们的防守效率都在联盟里排名第4，即使对跳
投的压迫不到位，一直以来他们都是支很棒的防守强队。然而防守跳投到位的百分比和对
手的eFG%其实是有关联的(亦即是和防守效率有关)，所以雷霆的状况是个特例。
They have defended the rim well. They rank fifth in opponent field-goal
percentage in the restricted area, with Serge Ibaka ranking among the top
individual rim protectors. That’s obviously important.
But, by itself, it doesn’t account for how high the Thunder rank in opponent
EFG%. Not only do they not contest jumpers very well, but they don’t really
force bad shots. About 61 percent of their opponents’ shots have come from
the restricted area or 3-point range, the seventh highest rate in the league.
当然他们对篮框的保护很出色，将对手在禁区的投篮命中率压制到NBA第5低，其中Serge
Ibaka是联盟中最顶尖的禁区守护神之一，这显然是其中的关键。
但是这样还不足以说明为何雷霆在对手的eFG%有如此优秀的表现。因为他们不只对跳投的
防守不够，也无法迫使对手选择没有效率的出手。与他们对阵的球队，大约有61%的出手
是在禁区或三分线外，这是全联盟第7高的数字。
So how have they been so good defensively? They do rank in the top 10 in
defensive rebounding percentage and are slightly above average at forcing
turnovers. But you have to wonder if there’s a little luck involved. Take
the following numbers into account…
- Thunder opponents have shot 38.7 percent on uncontested jumpers, the sixth
lowest rate in the league.
- Thunder opponents have shot 30.5 percent on contested jumpers, the second
lowest rate in the league.
- Thunder opponents have shot 72.2 percent from the free-throw line, the
second lowest rate in the league. (What goes around comes around; they ranked
28th in free-throw defense last season.)
- Only one other defense (the Lakers) ranks in the top 10 in each of those
three categories. Five other teams rank in the top 10 in two of the three.
那么雷霆到底是如何守住对手的? 他们确实拥有前10名的防守篮板率DREB%，迫使对方产
生失误的能力也略高于联盟平均，但你可能忍不住怀疑有没有一点运气的成份在里头。让
我们看看下面的数字…
- 雷霆对手的跳投没有被守到时命中率是38.7%，联盟第6低。
- 雷霆对手的跳投被守到时命中率是30.5%，联盟第2低。
- 雷霆对手的罚球命中率是72.2%，也是联盟第2低。(风水轮流转，上一季他们对手的罚
球命中率是第28低，也就是第3高。)
- 除了雷霆，只有湖人在上面三项数据都排进前10，另外也只有5支球队能在其中两项同
时进到前10。
Now, the definition of what’s contested (see above) allows for some leeway.
It could mean that the defender is six inches from the shooter with his hand
in his face, and it could mean that he’s 48 inches away with his hands down.
Maybe the Thunder contest to a different degree than other teams. But they don
’t contest a lot.
Eliminating the possible “luck” factor, the Thunder are still a good
defensive team. If OKC opponents had shot the league average on contested
jumpers, uncontested jumpers and free throws, the Thunder would have allowed
86 more points this season (about 1.5 more per 100 possessions) and would
rank seventh in defensive efficiency (in part because there’s a dropoff
after the top seven).
现在看来，关于防守到位(contested)的定义或许有些产生误差的空间。它可能意味着一
名防守者在6吋的距离内紧逼出手球员，同时将手遮住他的脸。它也可能代表防守者刚好
双手下垂地站在距离48吋的地方。也许雷霆的防守压迫程度不同于其他队伍，但是却无法
常常跟到位。
因为即使排除运气的成份，雷霆仍然是支优秀的防守球队。如果上述三项雷霆对手的命中
率都回到平均水准，他们本季将会多丢86分(DefReg%大概增加1.5分)，这将让他们的防守
效率排到第7(某种程度上是因为第7名以后有个巨大的落差)。
But they have had trouble slowing down Golden State, one of the league’s
best jump-shooting teams, the team that has been the most efficient against
the Thunder this season, and a possible first-round playoff opponent. In his
three games against the Thunder, only 21 of Stephen Curry‘s 66 field goal
attempts have been contested (just three of 22 on Nov. 14).
Some other good jump-shooting teams — Atlanta, Miami and Portland — also
have had decent success against the Thunder. Others — Dallas and Phoenix —
have not.
不过他们在面对超会跳投的金州勇士时遇到了大麻烦，这支本季对雷霆打得最有效率的球
队，很有可能是他们季后赛的首轮对手。在本季三次交手中，Stephen Curry总共66次的
出手只有21次有人防守(11/14时更是只有3-22)。
其他擅长跳投的球队中，老鹰、热火和拓荒者也都对雷霆有不错的进攻效率，而小牛和太
阳则没办法。
In this first full season of player tracking, there are still some things to
figure out. And maybe things will be different defensively for the Thunder
with a healthy Russell Westbrook. But if Brooks’ goal is to contest every
shot, his team has some work to do.
本季是启用player tracking系统的第一个完整球季，看来还有一些问题待厘清。或许当
Russell Westbrook健康归来以后一切又会不一样，然而如果Brooks的目标是干扰所有的
出手，他们还需要更多的努力。