The Rudy Gay Principle
甲甲原理
(部落格影音图文好读版：http://mola79321.pixnet.net/blog/post/346598522)
In their 1969 book The Peter Principle, Laurence Peter and Raymond Hull
dissected the relationship between promotions and competence in the
workplace. The core idea was that workers continue to get promoted, so long
as they produce effectively, but at some point they get promoted one too many
times and are unable to remain efficient. Peter and Hull refer to this as the
“level of incompetence” and suggest that many jobs tend “to be occupied by
an employee who is incompetent to carry out their duties.”
在1969时，Laurence Peter和Raymond Hull研究在职场上升迁和能力之间的关系
，并把研究内容发表在“The Peter Principle”这本书中。其核心概念在说只要
员工能产生效率，那就会不断的被升职。但被升到某个高度便无法保持应有生产
效率。Peter和Hull将其称为“不适任程度”，而且指出很多工作冈位易于被无法
胜任此职位的员工占据。
（看篮球长知识：“彼得原理”维基百科
http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%BD%BC%E5%BE%97%E5%8E%9F%E7%90%86）
In terms of basketball analytics, the great Dean Oliver put forth a similar
notion. In his book, Basketball on Paper, Oliver introduces the “skill curve,
” which examines the relationship between the usage and efficiency of NBA
players. Oliver theorizes that players are efficient up to some usage
threshold, but beyond that point they become less efficient. One reason bad
NBA teams are populated by players with bad stats is that those guys are
asked to perform beyond their limits.
以篮球分析来说，伟大的Dean Oilver提出一个类似的概念。在他的书“Basketball
on Paper”中，Oliver提出“技巧曲线”这个概念。其是在探讨NBA球员使用率
和效率的关系。Oliver从其推论出，当球员的效率在某个使用率上限前会上升，
但过了那个极限点后效率反而会下降。NBA中较差的球队有一堆数据烂的球员的
其中一个原因就是这些人被要求要超越他们的极限。
About five weeks ago the Raptors traded Rudy Gay to Sacramento. Since then, he
’s looked like a marvelous scorer (not a typo). As a Raptor, Gay was using
an insane 31 percent of Raptors possessions (a mark higher than Kevin Durant,
Carmelo Anthony, and LeBron James); he was easily on pace to set his career
high in that category. Coincidentally or not, Gay was also on pace to bottom
out in a lot of efficiency measures.
大约五周前，暴龙把Rudy Gay交易到国王队。自从那天开始，他表现的像是位了
不起的得分手。我是认真的！还在穿暴龙球衣时，Gay的球权使用率高达31%。这
数据比Kevin Durant、Carmelo Anthony和LeBron James三位顶级小前锋都还要高
。他正朝着创下使用率的生涯新高的纪录迈进。好巧不巧，他也即将在效率数据
方面创下生涯新低。
He was doing this kind of stuff:
他在暴龙的表现…请看VCR：
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YixCxTXtuvs
Then he got traded.
然后他就被交易了。
Since arriving in Sacramento, Gay’s numbers have been great. Oliver himself
sees Gay as an example of the skill curve phenomenon: “It is pretty dramatic
how much more efficient Gay has been in years where he hasn’t used a lot of
possessions. Twice in Memphis and now in Sacramento, he uses fewer
possessions and his efficiency goes from below-average or average to above.”
自从批上国王战袍后，Gay的数据非常亮眼。Oliver他自己认为Gay是技巧曲线现
象的最佳代表：
“这几年中当Gay的使用率不高时，他的效率便大幅提升。在灰熊时有两次，而现
在在国王队亦是如此。他的使用率下降时，他在场上的效率便从低于平均或中庸上
升至平均以上。”
Gay’s overall field goal percentage has shot up from 39 percent in Toronto
to 53 percent in Sacramento. He is basically shooting from the same spots,
but less frequently. In Toronto he averaged 19 shots per 36 minutes; in
Sacramento that’s down to 15, and his attempts are going in more frequently,
especially in the midrange and close to the basket.
Gay整体的命中率从暴龙队时的39%上升至国王队时的53%。他的出手位置基本上没
有差别，但减少出手次数。他在暴龙时每36分钟便出手19次。在国王时减到15次
。同时，他的入球率越来越高，尤其是中距离和篮框附近的出手。
http://ppt.cc/g0dz
As of Monday, Gay had made exactly 50 percent of his 92 midrange attempts in
Sacramento. Those are Dirk Nowitzki numbers. Back in Toronto he made only 35
percent in that zone. But the biggest development has been close to the
basket, where he’s been ferocious. As a Raptor, Gay made only 43 percent of
his shots inside of eight feet. Those are Ricky Rubio numbers. As a King,
that number has boomed to 65 percent.
在礼拜一时，Gay在国王队92次中距离出手的命中率刚好50%。这是Dirk Nowitzki
级的中距离命中率。还在当铁甲暴龙时，他的中距离只有35%的命中率。但进步最
多的位置还是在篮框附近，而他在篮框附近的表现可以说是凶猛无比。还留在多
伦多时，Gay八呎内的命中率只有43%。这可以说是Ricky Rubio级的篮下命中率。
但来到沙加缅度后，命中率飙高到65%。
Despite his increased efficiency, Gay is still not worth $17.89 million per
year. This is not his fault, and to quote my coworker, “keep gettin’ them
checks, Rudy.” Players don’t build rosters, they don’t write the
contracts, and they don’t design the offenses. Rudy Gay, the player, has
been traded two times in the last year. But it’s perhaps more accurate to
say that Rudy Gay, the contract, has been off-loaded twice.
尽管他的效率提高了，Gay依旧不值年薪1,789万美金。这不是他的错。而且就像
我同事说的“继续赚他们的钱吧，Rudy。”球员不负责组球队阵容、他们不需要
写合约内容，而且设计进攻战术不是他们的责任。Rudy Gay身为一位球员，在去
年一年内被交易两次。不过更精确的说法应该是Rudy Gay的合约，在去年被摆脱
两次。
Within the cap-obsessed NBA, Gay has been promoted to the level of his
incompetence. Within the Toronto offense he was pushed to the wrong side of
Oliver’s skill curve.
在这着迷于薪资的NBA联盟，Gay的加薪超过他能力所及的高度。在暴龙的进攻战
术中，他被迫表现出Oliver“技巧曲线”效率差的那一段。
But the argument that he’s bad at basketball is foolish. He’s clearly
talented, and in the right environment he could be a poor man’s James
Worthy. This fact was not lost on Kings GM Pete D’Alessandro, who expressed
skepticism in the analytical dismissals of Gay immediately after the trade:
但主张说他篮球打不好是愚蠢的事。他明显有天份，而且在对的环境中打球，他
可以打得像是穷人版James Worthy。国王队GM Pete D’Alessandro理解这件事实
，他也在Gay交易案后关于摆脱掉Gay的分析文中保持怀疑态度：
“We look at him differently than maybe others do. I feel like a lot of times
with certain players, it’s where they’re getting the ball, it’s where they
’re scoring, it’s the position they’re put in. And I think we have a good
idea, we’re talking as a staff a little bit, we have a good idea of what
positions that we’d like to put him in.”
“我们看他的角度和其他人可能不太一样。我认为很多时候对一些特定球员来说
，重点在于他们在哪拿到球、他们在哪个位置得分、他们的球队角色是如何定位
。我们这些幕后人员对于该如何定位他有着不错的想法。”
In other words, tactics and stuff like that are important.
换句话说，战略是很重要的。
Gay has gone from leading man to character actor; his usage is way down and
his efficiency is way up. Like he did in Memphis, he’s making the most of
his touches by getting more points in transition and off turnovers, and a
higher share of his field goals are assisted. He’s taking fewer atrocious
pull-up jumpers.
Gay从主角变成性格演员。他的使用率大幅下降，而效率却大幅提升。像在灰熊
队一样，他大部分的得分来自于攻守转换和失误后的得分，同时更多部分的入球
来自于助攻。他减少糟糕的拔起来跳投出手。
Because Gay makes $17.89 million, there’s an implication he is one of the
most valuable assets in the entire league. He is not. And while players and
their contracts are deservedly intertwined in many analyses, any productive
conversation about Gay has to somehow both acknowledge and look beyond his
ridiculous financial situation. More than three years ago, the executives in
Memphis overvalued and overpaid him. Now what?
就因为Gay的年薪是1,789万美金，这数字表示他是整个联盟中最有价值的资产之
一。但他不是。而正因球员和其身价在很多分析中被理所当然的连在一起讨论，
任何关于Gay球场效率的谈论，都不知怎的要和他那荒唐的合约一起被审视。三
年多前，灰熊队的GM高估他并给他不合身价的合约。那现在呢？
He’s obviously capable of being a really good NBA player, but he’s not ever
going to be the alpha dog on any great team. That’s why he’s a really
interesting case study. He may be the face of the Peter Principle in the NBA
right now, but does that mean we overlook his talents? What happens to good
young players who get overpaid or overused?
他显然的能成为一位优秀的NBA球员，但他永远不会在任何一支顶级球队成为一哥
。因此他算是个非常有趣的个案。他现在可能就代表着NBA的“彼得原理”，但这
表示我们忽略他的天份吗？若有一位年轻球员的合约签贵了或是被过度使用的话
又会发生什么事呢？
The Kings are betting that they can absorb overpaying for Gay, and that
paying for his talents does not equate to over-relying upon them. Through
five weeks it looks like a decent wager. He looks good alongside DeMarcus
Cousins, who is an alpha dog, and Isaiah Thomas. The Kings have won six of
their last 10 games, including impressive victories against Houston, Miami,
and Portland. Gay’s current numbers may not be sustainable (they’re not),
but they still demonstrate he’s better than the player we saw in Toronto, he
still has a future in this league, and that future might be as a key
long-term piece in Sacramento.
国王赌他们可以承受Gay过高的合约，而且国王付钱让他在场上发挥天分并不等同
于过度依赖他。就过去五周来看，这赌注颇不赖。他在DeMarcus Cousins和Isaiah
Thomas旁边表现的很不错，而Cousins正是所谓的一哥型球员。国王过去10场比赛
赢了6场，其中包含对上火箭、热火和拓荒者三战令人眼睛为之一亮的胜利。Gay
目前在国王的数据可能不会一直在高档，但这些数字依旧表示他比起在暴龙队时
表现更出色。也表示他在联盟还有未来，而且这个未来可能就是国王队关键的长
期建队角色。
Then again, since trading Gay and his contract, Toronto has the best record
in the Eastern Conference.
另一方面，自从交易掉Gay和他的合约后，暴龙队在东区的胜率是最佳的。
原文网址－
http://tinyurl.com/kyqh2ph
心得
Rudy Gay的案例可以说让我们再次看到球员在不同的战术体系下，会有多大的差距。
像是马刺的Green，从被其他队丢弃，到在总冠军赛创造三分历史。
同时，也是一次GM评估错误的血淋淋案例。但以灰熊队当时的立场来说，小市场想要
抢下可能的球队建队基石也是不为过。毕竟签约不是单单用球员能力评估这么简单。
这交易成为一笔双赢的局，而且目前来说效果奇佳。会是昙花一线吗？我们还要看下
去。
暴龙方面，交易后战绩直直冲，在今年一团烂的东区稳稳拿下季后赛席次应该不成问
题。
而国王方面就没这么简单。虽然战绩变好了，但以今年西区的强度，要冲进季后赛还
真需要一点奇蹟。不过以目前的阵容，我想国王队也能慢慢赢回球迷的心。而且照现
在的态势走下去，放眼明年绝对不是梦。