Guardians-Yankees position-by-position breakdown
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Catcher
The Yankees made a big change at catcher prior to the 2022 season when they deal
t Gary Sanchez to the Twins and acquired Jose Trevino from the Rangers. Trevino
responded with an All-Star season in which he slashed .355/.396/.505 with runner
s in scoring position and provided fantastic defense behind the dish. Between Tr
evino and Kyle Higashioka, the Yanks had the eighth-best catching WAR in MLB thi
s season, per Baseball Reference.
While the Guardians also get reliable defense and game-calling from Austin Hedge
s and backup Luke Maile, their .533 OPS from the catching spot was the second wo
rst in MLB.
Advantage: Yankees
洋基有优势
First base
Anthony Rizzo returned to the Yankees on a two-year deal for 2022-23 and had his
best season since '19. His 32 homers tied a career high, and his 132 weighted r
uns created plus was the second only to Judge among qualifiers on the Yanks.
Josh Naylor and Owen Miller essentially split the starts at first base. Naylor’
s return this year from a terrible right ankle and calf injury gave Cleveland a
big boost, as he contributed a 117 wRC+ and big energy. Miller, though, was a be
low-average offensive contributor.
Advantage: Yankees
洋基有优势
Second base
With a .257/.310/.451 slash line, Gleyber Torres gave the Yanks his best overall
season since 2019. Though his offensive impact was weighted toward the first ha
lf, he did finish the year strong, with a .959 OPS in September. If versatile ve
teran DJ LeMahieu, who has dealt with a toe issue, is rostered, he’s also an op
tion here.
In Cleveland, Andrés Giménez’s All-Star breakout was one of the great stories
of the season. Among all qualified AL second basemen, his 140 weighted runs cre
ated plus and 6.1 fWAR ranked behind only the Astros’ Jose Altuve. He was 1-for
-8 with six strikeouts in the Wild Card Series, but we won’t hold that against
him.
Advantage: Guardians
守护者有优势
Shortstop
The Yankees surprisingly abstained from the deep free-agent shortstop market, in
stead prioritizing defense by trading for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who slashed .261/.
314/.327. The advanced metrics were mixed on his defensive contribution, with ou
ts above average rating him at minus-2 (25th among shortstops) while defensive r
uns saved had him at plus-10 (tied for sixth best among shortstops).
The metrics are also mixed on Cleveland’s Amed Rosario, who was plus-6 in defen
sive runs saved at shortstop but minus-7 in outs above average. Regardless, he h
ustled his way to a respectable .283/.312/.403 slash line and an MLB-high nine t
riples, with 18 stolen bases.
Advantage: Guardians
守护者有优势
Third base
Josh Donaldson’s first season in the Bronx after an offseason trade was statist
ically his worst healthy season since his rookie year with Oakland in 2012. He s
lashed .222/.308/.374, though his defense, per outs above average, still graded
out well at plus-7.
As if we needed more reminders of what José Ramírez means to the Guardians in
the Wild Card round, he hit the go-ahead two-run homer in Game 1 and made a game
-saving defensive gem in Game 2. Going back to 2016, the only players with a hig
her FanGraphs WAR than Ramírez’s 39.4 mark are Mookie Betts and Mike Trout (bo
th 43.5).
Advantage: Guardians
守护者有优势
Left field
This position has been a mess for the Yankees this season. Joey Gallo hit (or, r
ather, didn’t hit) his way out of the Bronx. Andrew Benintendi was acquired at
the Trade Deadline only to break his right hamate bone 33 games into his tenure,
leaving the recent starts to struggling veteran Aaron Hicks and rookie Oswaldo
Cabrera. The latter has made an instant impact (1.5 fWAR in 44 games) but is obv
iously still getting settled.
Rookie leadoff man Steven Kwan is another big reason why the Guardians are where
they are. He hit .298 with a .373 on-base percentage, provided defense that is
likely to win him a Gold Glove (95th percentile in outs above average) and swipe
d 19 bags.
Advantage: Guardians
守护者有优势
Center field
Only recently have the Yankees begun to pencil trade acquisition Harrison Bader
into the lineup in center field. He made his debut in pinstripes on Sept. 20 aft
er dealing with plantar fasciitis. He only played 86 games this season for the C
ardinals and Yanks, but over the last three years he’s paired an MLB-best 24 ou
ts above average with league-average offense, which is a nice package.
Tying Bader in that tally for outs above average is Myles Straw. He, too, is a g
ame-changing defender. Alas, league-average offense eluded Straw this year, as h
e had the lowest OPS (.564) of any qualifier.
Advantage: Yankees
洋基有优势
Right field
Do we really need to do this? Do we really need to compare Judge, who just hit a
n AL-record 62 homers while amassing a .311/.425/.686 slash line and 207 wRC+, t
o any other hitter in baseball right now?
Didn’t think so. But credit to baby-faced Oscar Gonzalez for following up a str
ong rookie season (.788 OPS) with the game-winning homer in the Wild Card Series
clincher.
Advantage: Yankees
洋基有优势
Designated hitter
Giancarlo Stanton slumped badly from mid-June to late September and has only pla
yed DH since returning from the injured list with left Achilles tendinitis in Au
gust. But he’s obviously a huge power threat, as evidenced by him hitting three
home runs in his last three games of the regular season. For the year, he had a
career-worst .759 OPS in 452 plate appearances.
Even if Stanton is not up to his usual standards, the Yankees get the edge at DH
because … the Guardians don’t really have one. Sometimes it’s Naylor there,
sometimes it’s Miller, while in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, it was speedy r
ookie Will Brennan, who just debuted on Sept. 21.
Advantage: Yankees
洋基有优势
Starting pitching
Keep in mind that because of the unusual extra off-day between Games 1 and 2 in
the ALDS schedule (and Cleveland’s sweep in the first round), neither team need
s a fourth starter on regular rest unless the series goes to a decisive Game 5 o
n Oct. 17.
The Yankees’ rotation has big talent with a big question in the form of Gerrit
Cole. He is one of the most prominent pitchers in the sport, but his 111 ERA+ in
33 starts this year was pedestrian, by his standards, and his rate of 1.48 home
rs per nine was fifth worst among qualifiers. The better numbers wound up coming
from Nestor Cortes (2.44 ERA, 159 ERA+) and injury returnee Luis Severino (3.18
, 123 ERA+), both of whom have long since blown past their 2021 innings totals.
Jameson Taillon was inconsistent en route to an ERA+ that, for the second straig
ht year, rated as exactly league average.
Cleveland’s rotation has been a big strength for some time, even as the cast ev
olves. Cal Quantrill can go in Game 1 on the heels of his 3.38 ERA and 113 ERA+
in the regular season. The ace is Shane Bieber, who came back from a right shoul
der injury this year and has gradually evolved back into 2020 AL Cy Young form.
Including a Wild Card Series gem against the Rays, Bieber has a 1.97 ERA and a .
208 opponents' average in his last 14 starts. Triston McKenzie backed up his bre
akout 2022 (2.96 ERA, 129 ERA+) with six scoreless innings and two hits allowed
in the Wild Card Series. The fourth option would be Aaron Civale, whose season n
umbers aren’t pretty but who had a 3.35 ERA and a .186 opponents' average in th
e second half.
Both of these clubs had a top 10 rotation in terms of ERA, but Cleveland’s was
top five (3.41) in the second half, while the Yankees ranked 17th (3.94). We’ll
go with the Guards for now. But if the electric version of Cole comes out to pl
ay (always a possibility), that would change in a hurry.
Slight advantage: Guardians
守护者有优势
Bullpen
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