※ [本文转录自 Pirates 看板 #1HpOkq87 ]
作者: GuoShong (Go dutch!) 看板: Pirates
标题: [翻译] The Historically Dreadful Pirates
时间: Fri Jun 28 21:12:17 2013
鲜少翻译，今天看到FG这一篇有趣的数据就随手翻译
有错麻烦各位大大指正！
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-historically-dreadful-pittsburgh-pirates/
Everyone agrees that there are good stories in baseball. When it comes to
deciding what counts as a good story, though, there are as many definitions
as there are people who care to have one. Yet as far as the 2013 Pittsburgh
Pirates are concerned, the majority are on the same page. The last time the
Pirates finished at least .500 was 1992, and they were eliminated from the
playoffs on October 14. Two days later, Bryce Harper was born. Now, the
Pirates are tied with the Cardinals for the best record in baseball right
around the midpoint, and though the Pirates might not be baseball’s best
team, they’re well on their way to finishing .500 and then some. One of the
keys to enjoying baseball is freshness, and the Pirates’ success feels
fresh. They’re a fun team to support and an easy team to bandwagon.
大家都知道棒球这运动充满了好故事，但是要定义什么是好故事可有很多种方法。2013
球季的海盗队这个好故事，倒是让许多人附议。上次海盗队胜率达到五成是在1992年，
当年他们在十月十四号在季后赛被淘汰。两天后Bryce Harper出生。现在，海盗队和红
雀队的战绩并列大联盟第一。虽然本季结束海盗队并不一定会维持第一名的成绩，但是
却是顺利地朝着超越五成胜率前进。新鲜感是看棒球的乐趣之一，而海盗的成功相当的
新鲜，是一支支持起来很愉快的队伍，就算是只想看赢球的人也蛮好取悦的。
However, while on the surface everything’s peaches, the team success has
hidden a team weakness of historical significance. And this doesn’t have
anything to do with the fact that Clint Barmes just can’t hit, even though,
yeah, he can’t hit. There’s something the Pirates have done worse than
anyone else. And I don’t just mean anyone else this season. I mean anyone
else at least since Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier. There’s
something at which the Pirates have been historically dreadful.
不过呢，即便表面上看起来一切如此甜美多汁，这支球队有一个在历史上相当出众的弱
点。啊，这跟Clint Barmes不会打击没关系，虽然说他，啊唷，就是不会打击啦。有一
件事海盗做的比大家都还要差，而且我说的并不只是这一季，而是从Jackie Robinson以
来的每一支球队。海盗队今年的某个表现，是历史性地差劲。
Remember Gerrit Cole‘s big-league debut? You do if you root for the Pirates.
Even if you don’t root for the Pirates, you probably read about it. Cole
faced off against Tim Lincecum, and when Cole departed in the seventh, his
team was up 5-1. But before that, in the bottom of the second, Cole batted
with the bases loaded and singled home a pair of runs. That was incredible,
given the Gerrit Cole context. And that was also incredible given the
Pittsburgh Pirates context.
你还记得Gerrit Cole的大联盟初登板吗？如果你是海盗迷你当然记得，就算你不是你也
可能在新闻有看到。Cole和Lincecum的巨人对决，投到七局退场的时候海盗五比一领先。
而在那之前，二局下半，满垒的时候Cole打出一支两分打点的一垒安打。就Cole来说，难
以置信；就海盗来说，也是难以置信。
Because that was a hit for a Pirates pitcher. There haven’t been many of
them. There have been 11, to be precise, and it’s almost July. Pirates
pitchers have batted 159 times, and I’ll present to you some numbers:
这是一支海盗投手打出的安打。本季以来，根本稀有。精确来说，有11支，喂，快要七月
了耶。海盗打者已经打击了159次，我现在提出一些数据
.077 batting average
.097 on-base percentage
.077 slugging percentage
.081 wOBA
-60 wRC+
I used the FanGraphs leaderboards to examine the window between 1947-2013,
splitting up individual team seasons. I isolated pitchers hitting, then I set
a plate-appearance minimum of 100 to eliminate more recent American League
teams with little sample sizes. I was left with a pool totaling 1,043. Here’
s where the 2013 Pirates pitchers rank in various statistical categories:
我用了FG的数据库检视了1947年以来的数据，把每一队分开，再独立出投手的打击。然后
我把低于100打席的数据踢掉，以免算到近几年来的美联球队数据，他们的样本太小了。
最后我得到1043笔资料，而以下是2013的海盗投手群在某些数据项目的排名：
Batting average: last
On-base percentage: last
Slugging percentage: last
Isolated slugging: last
wOBA: last
wRC+: last
Out of all of the pitching staffs, only this year’s Pirates have an ISO of
.000. Every other pitching staff had at least one extra-base hit, although it
’s worth noting that the second-lowest ISO was posted by the 2012 Pirates. It
’s also worth noting that the season is only half over, but the Pirates have
been awful in this department, and it’s not even all that close.
在这么多的投手群中，只有今年的海盗队纯长打率是零。其他每队的投手至少都打出过一
支长打。值得一提的是纯长打率排行倒数第二的是2012求寄的海盗队。球季才打一半，海
盗在这个项目就如此悽惨。
Not only do these Pirates pitchers have the worst-ever wRC+; they’ve
protected their position with walls and a moat and hot oil. Here are the
worst staffs, at batting:
海盗不止在wRC+这个项目垫底，他们还输很大。以下是这个数据中，打击最差的投手群：
2013 Pirates, -60 wRC+
2006 Brewers, -49
2001 Mets, -44
1998 Reds, -43
2003 Reds, -42
That’s an 11-point lead, or anti-lead, depending. The Pirates have a
22-point lead over the next-worst team from this season. That team, as it
happens, is the Cardinals, and while one could write about their pitchers
hitting, too, it’s the Pirates who demand the most attention.
海盗有11分的领先，或是落后，看你怎么解读。以本季来说，海盗跟倒数第二名的红雀
有22分的差距。或许也是可以有人去写一篇红雀投手的打击啦，但是海盗的投手群吸引
了最大的注意。
Pirates pitchers this year have hit worse than American League pitchers. They
have, to their collective name, three walks and 66 strikeouts. Undoubtedly a
contributing factor is that they’re simply opposed to swinging. We’ve only
got plate-discipline data here going back to 2002, but since 2002, these
Pirates pitchers have the lowest combined swing rate, at 38%. We find the
2008 Marlins pitchers just above 39%. Now, Brett Gardner has a career swing
rate of 35%, so that’s not unprecedented, but Gardner has a good eye and a
good swing, and the Pirates pitchers have neither. They’ve swung at just
over 30% of balls, and they’ve swung at just over 40% of strikes. They don’
t swing, because they can’t swing, but both approaches just lead them to
outs.
海盗投手本季打得比美联投手还要烂。海盗投手到目前为止被四坏球保送了三次，吞了
66个三振。毫无疑问，这其中的原因之一就是他们不挥棒。我们关于选球的数据只能回
溯到2002年，不过从那时候以来，海盗队投手的挥棒率是最低的，只有38%。2008年的
马林鱼投手群也只超过39%而已。Brett Gardner生涯的挥棒率只有35%，所以说海盗并
不孤独，可是不同在于Gardner的选球和挥棒都不错，而海盗投手都很差。他们对坏球
挥棒率超过30%，对好球只有40%。他们不挥棒，是因为他们不会挥棒，而这两者都只是
让他们走向出局而已。
It’s not all bad. James McDonald has reached four times out of 12. But it’s
mostly bad. Jeff Locke is 1-for-26, with ten strikeouts. A.J. Burnett is
1-for-27, with 17 strikeouts. Pitcher hitting, of course, isn’t ever going
to win or lose a pennant, and pitchers are selected on how well they can
pitch, but Pirates pitchers have a -1.0 WAR as hitters. The Brewers and Cubs
are at +0.7. It doesn’t not make any difference, which makes it worth
observing, and when you observe these Pirates, your eyebrows shoot to your
hairline.
也是有例外啦。James McDonald今年12次打击，上垒4次。不过大部分都蛮差的。Jeff
Locke本季26支1，吞了10次三振。AJ只有27支1，17次三振。投手的打击当然不是赢得
冠军的关键，投手主要的工作也是投球，但是海盗投手做为打者的WAR是-1.0，在此同
时，酿酒人和小熊的投手高达0.7。这没什么差，但颇值得观察，而且当观察海盗投手
打击时，你的眉毛会翘得跟发线一样高。
（译注：如果是Pedroia的发线呢？）
I’ve prepared a few .gifs of what I consider to be “remarkable” Pirates
pitcher hits. There weren’t many to choose from. Interestingly, FanGraphs
credits them with 11 hits, while Baseball-Reference credits them with ten.
This is because, one time, in the ninth inning with a short bench, Wandy
Rodriguez pinch-hit and singled. Because Rodriguez didn’t do so as a
pitcher, technically, he doesn’t count for BR’s purposes. But because
Rodriguez is a pitcher normally, he counts for FG purposes. So there’s some
disagreement over just how bad this group has been, and I could’ve made them
look even worse had I wanted to.
我准备了几个gif档，都是我认为很不错的海盗投手的安打。说实在的也没有很多可以
选啦。有趣的是，FG说海盗投手打了11支安打，而BR说只有10支。这是因为有一次，第
九局板凳没人了，WRod上来代打打了一支安打。因为WRod并不是以投手的身份敲这安打
，所以技术上来说，这就不被BR认定为一支投手安打。但是因为他是投手，所以以FG角
度来说就是投手安打。所以这群投手表现烂到什么程度，大家都还有不同见解勒，如果
我想要的话，我还可以用BR的数据让他们看起来更差。
（译注：接下来有几个图档可以到原连结去看）
Here, we see Cole picking up his two-run single against Lincecum:
这是Cole对Lincecum打的两分打点安打。
Here’s reliever Bryan Morris singling against Alfredo Simon to lead off a
seventh inning for some reason:
这是在某种原因之下，后援投手Bryan Morris在第七局开路打的安打。
Here’s James McDonald picking up two hits against Cliff Lee in the same game:
这是同一场比赛中，James McDonald打了Cliff Lee的两支安打。
Here’s Wandy Rodriguez pinch-hitting:
这是WRod的代打安打。
And, finally, it’s A.J. Burnett’s one hit, which he couldn’t find off the
bat:
最后，AJ的安打，打出去的时候他还不知道自己打安打。
A.J. Burnett has one hit this season. Had Jason Heyward been paying
attention, he could’ve thrown Burnett out at first, because for a few
seconds Burnett lost the baseball and assumed it was foul. When Burnett got
to first, he wasn’t happy with himself, meaning his one success was ruined.
Burnett, at least, has 12 extra-base hits and three homers at the plate in
his career, all having come as a Marlin. Since those days ended he’s hit
.057. Burnett does one thing well. It’s a good thing he does.
AJ这一季打了一支安打。如果黑娃当时注意一点的话，他根本可以把AJ刺杀在一垒，因
为球打出去的前几秒，AJ不知道他打到哪里，就当作自己打了个界外球。当他上一垒的
时候他还有点不爽，这小小的成功就这样被破坏得不完美了。AJ的生涯打了12支长打，
包括3支全垒打。都是在马林鱼时期打的。离开马林鱼之后，他的打击率只有0.057。AJ
现在有一件事做得不错，但也就只有这么一件事了。
（译：请问最后一句是指他现在只剩下投球了吗？）
The Pirates, right now, don’t have sole possession of first place. Not that
anyone can rightfully complain. Usually, when a team is just missing
something, fans lament a particular blown save or something along those
lines. “If Closer X didn’t blow Save Y, then this team would be in Position
Z.” If Jason Grilli didn’t blow a save on June 19, maybe the Pirates right
now would have the best record in baseball. And maybe the Pirates right now
would have the best record in baseball if they didn’t have the worst-hitting
pitchers in modern baseball history. If one of those arguments is valid, then
so are they both.
现在海盗并不是独占鼇头，但也没人可以抱怨啦。通常当球队只差一点点就可以达到什
么成寄的时候，球迷就会开始拿某几场BS或是等等的出来酸啦。“如果那个终结者没有
砸掉那几场比赛的话，现在球队就会在第几名了耶。”如果Grilli没有在六月十九号砸
掉那一场后援，或许现在海盗就会独居榜首的位子。也或许，如果海盗的投手打击不是
现代棒球最烂的话，海盗就可以独占鼇头了。如果有一个论点成立的话，那其实这两个
假设都可以成立啦。