Prospect Retrospective: Doug Fister

楼主: alex710707 (PonWei)   2013-02-01 11:59:19
Per reader request, here is a Prospect Retrospective and Career Profile on Doug Fister. From now on with these Prospect Retros, I'm going to include a "Lesson Learned."
Doug Fister was a solid (though not outstanding) starting pitcher for Fresno
State in 2005, going 7-6, 4.32 with a 77/27 K/BB in 94 innings with 90 hits
allowed as a junior. He was drafted by the Yankees in the sixth round, but
wasn't happy with the offered bonus and went back to college for his senior
year. This produced similar numbers: 8-6, 4.10 with a 108/47 K/BB in 116 innings
, 118 hits allowed. The decision to return to college likely cost him money:
the Mariners picked him in the seventh round of the '06 draft, but as a
senior he had no leverage and got just a $50,000 bonus.
Scouts were intrigued with his 6-8, 185 pound frame, but his stuff was
considered just average with an 88-90 MPH fastball and an okay slider. He was
used as a reliever in the Northwest League after signing, with a 2.25 ERA and
a 35/11 K/BB in 40 innings, but as a senior with average stuff pitching
against younger competition, he didn't show up on prospect lists. I did not
put him in the 2007 book, but I didn't have great reports on him despite his
numbers, and would have given him a Grade C if I had put him in the book.
Baseball America didn't put him in their Mariners Top 30 either, so I wasn't
alone.
Fister jumped all the way to Double-A in his first pro season, going 7-8, 4.60
with a 85/32 K/BB in 131 innings for West Tennessee, allowing 156 hits. He
showed sharp control, but his K/IP ratio was below average and he gave up a
ton of hits. Scouting reports were the same as before: mediocre fastball,
okay slider, okay changeup, but nothing that stood out about him. Certainly
the numbers weren't that impressive, and to me he looked like a Double-A
inning-eater. I didn't put him in the '08 book, and Baseball America made
the same decision for their handbook. He still looked like a marginal Grade C
guy to me.
Returning to West Tennessee for '08, Fister's ERA rose to 5.43 and he went
6-14. He did strike out more people, with a 104/45 K/BB in 134 innings, but
remained extremely hittable with 155 hits given up. Again, reports indicated
a guy who threw strikes with mediocre stuff, and there was nothing in the
numbers or the scouting reports to indicate a breakout ahead. Once again, he
was left out of both my book and BA's book entering 2009.
Fister began '09 with West Tennessee, but was promoted to Triple-A after
pitching 5.2 scoreless innings in relief. With Tacoma, he went 6-4, 3.81 with
a 79/11 K/BB in 106 innings, with 132 hits given up. Again, that's a lot of
hits. But his control went from good to excellent, his BB/9 dropping from 3.0
in '08 to a mere 0.9 in '09. The K/IP and H/IP remained unimpressive, but the
sharp reduction in walks boosted his performance and got him noticed.
Promoted to the majors when Seattle needed a starter during the summer of
‘09, he went 3-4, 4.13 with a 36/15 K/BB in 61 innings for the Mariners,
with 63 hits allowed. Pitching in front of major league defenses seemed to
help him, and he continued to throw strikes with aplomb.
He exceeded rookie innings limits, but I would have given him a Grade C or C+
entering 2010 due to his low strikeout rate. I would probably have written
something along the lines that he could contribute as a fourth/fifth starter
and inning-eater if you put a good defense behind him, but that he had no
potential to dominate. That would have been a pretty accurate take for '10:
he went 6-14, 4.11 in 28 starts with a 93/32 K/BB, 187 hits in 171 innings,
and a 96 ERA+.
2011 showed him with a 3-12 record in 21 starts for the Mariners due to poor
run support, but with a 3.33 ERA and a 113 ERA+ in 146 innings. Traded to the
Tigers in July for the stretch run, he went on an 8-1, 1.79 run in 70 innings
for an ERA+ of 231, helping push Detroit to the post-season. Overall he posted
a 5.4 WAR in '11.
He was solid enough in 2012: 10-10, 3.45, 137/37 K/BB in 162 innings, 122 ERA+
, 3.6 WAR. Overall, in 610 major league innings, Fister is 30-41, 3.48 with a
412/121 K/BB, 599 hits allowed, 116 ERA+, 12.1 WAR. His career FIP is almost
identical to his ERA at 3.51.
Up until mid-season 2009, there was nothing in Fister's scouting reports,
college record, or minor league sabermetric profile to predict the successful
major league career he's had so far. Velocity was never his forte and still
isn't, but his fastball sinks well and his slider, cutter, curveball, and
changeup give him a diverse arsenal. He always threw strikes reasonably well,
but the big change was a sharp decline in his walk rate that began in ‘09.
Sharpening his command from decent to excellent took him to the top and has
kept him successful. Fister never showed up highly on prospect lists because
the command improvement happened so fast that he lost rookie eligibility
before most analysts could conclude that the changes were real.
Lesson Learned: Rapid improvements aren't always illusionary and can make a
big difference. If a pitcher throws strikes and gets grounders, he has
something to build on.
连结
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/1/31/3935200/doug-fister-rhp-detroit-tigers
-prospect-retrospective-2013
数据
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fistedo01.shtml
Doug Fister 别说从位入选百大,连Sickles给的评分也只有C,上MLB突然开窍控球进步,
变成不错的2号先发
作者: pandafish (New York 洋基)   2013-02-01 12:10:00
作者: srysry (潇湘夜雨)   2013-02-01 12:35:00
推文章 但是他文章所提控球变好是在2009年的小联盟就已经发
作者: srysry (潇湘夜雨)   2013-02-01 12:36:00
生 只是同年后来也升上大联盟 跟大联盟突然开窍有点不同..
作者: Atropos0723 (Atropos)   2013-02-01 13:18:00
当初水手用拳儿换来的货,现在好像都离开了.......这真是赔得彻底啊....
作者: Atropos0723 (Atropos)   2013-02-01 13:22:00
啊....记错了,换来的人都还在水兵系统....
楼主: alex710707 (PonWei)   2013-02-01 13:43:00
文章是说小联盟时期控球不错(decent)上大联盟变到优秀(excellent)
作者: srysry (潇湘夜雨)   2013-02-01 14:20:00
文中已经提到09在3a bb/9就已经从3.0修正到恐怖的1.0....
作者: srysry (潇湘夜雨)   2013-02-01 14:23:00
所以2009时也有机会上到mlb...
作者: srysry (潇湘夜雨)   2013-02-01 14:25:00
Fister began '09 with West Tennessee..(这是来到3A)
作者: srysry (潇湘夜雨)   2013-02-01 14:26:00
his control went from good to excellent, his BB/9ropping from 3.0 in '08 to a mere 0.9 in '09.
楼主: alex710707 (PonWei)   2013-02-01 14:27:00
恩 Sorry 大致上看过 没看仔细
作者: srysry (潇湘夜雨)   2013-02-01 14:27:00
我说1.0是看BR 你可以再看看那段的叙述...
作者: srysry (潇湘夜雨)   2013-02-01 14:30:00
翻译很辛苦...刚好有兴趣仔细看看到而已
楼主: alex710707 (PonWei)   2013-02-01 14:45:00
没翻译 也才一行而已 不过大致上确实就是讲这样
作者: Pennyjr (木头人)   2013-02-01 14:48:00
水兵放走他真的是亏阿,没有人想到他控球会变好
作者: Tornadola (nothing)   2013-02-01 15:04:00
当时的Vargas卖像太差 qq
作者: okinawa8 (ekao)   2013-02-01 15:09:00
他控球一直都很好阿 去老虎会升级是因为变化球进步吧
作者: ohb (好胜的命运是失落)   2013-02-01 16:10:00
他在水兵的成绩是靠一颗控球很棒的直球就有的
作者: OoyaoO (你今天崩潰了嗎 囧)   2013-02-01 17:19:00
还是搞不太懂水手卖他干嘛 当时他还有很久才FA 又能吃局数
作者: nolander (自己国家自己救)   2013-02-02 02:49:00
换来的货不错啦 只是还没打出来 拳儿又表现太好而已
作者: nolander (自己国家自己救)   2013-02-02 02:51:00
老猫打线应该对拳儿的心情有帮助 投得爽成绩好也是合理的
作者: Epsilon (我是EPS)   2013-02-02 12:41:00
交易前没人想得到的事,就不必事后诸葛了,最多觉得扼腕而
作者: Epsilon (我是EPS)   2013-02-02 12:42:00
已。Fister上major前就已经知道他控球很好了。
作者: starcry (天王星)   2013-02-02 17:59:00
节奏明快 看他投球蛮舒服的
作者: iluy ( )   2013-02-03 12:33:00
曲球变超威
作者: sjvious (LoveIsSweetMisery)   2013-02-03 14:52:00
Fister推一个

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