※ 引述《searoar (暗坑大豆)》之铭言：
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/wainwright-and-pujols-rough-starts/
Albert has not been living up to his expectation so far this season. Looking
over his stats, two values stick out as potential areas of concern, his walk
rate and power.
普砲打的完全跟期望值差很大，其中保送率跟长打是最令人担心的
Currently Albert has a career low 7.1% BB%. It is less than half of what it
was just 2 years ago. It might seem that this value is not much of a concern
because he is not being intentionally walked as much. Albert has been
intentionally walked 3.3% of the time over his career. By subtracting out the
intentional walks and the non-intentional intentional walks (IBBump), here
are his walk rates and corrected walk rates over the past 5 years:
普砲打出生涯低点的 7.1% 保送率，甚至是两年前的一半不到。
虽然可以试着解读成因为不会被故意保送了，不过减掉故意保送之后长这样:
( 前者为保送率，后者为修正后之保送率 )
Year: BB%, corrected BB%
2008: 16%, 8%
2009: 16%, 7%
2010: 15%, 7%
2011: 9%, 6%
2012: 7%, 3% (2 of his 5 BB have been IBB)
His corrected BB% was similar from 2008 to 2011. This season it has been cut
in half. He is definitely not being walked as much.
看到了吧，真的保送变少了。
A reason he may be seeing more strikes is that pitchers don’t fear him as
much as they did in the past because of a lack of power (0 HRs in 2012). Here
are his ISOs from 2009 to 2012:
其中一个原因很可能是因为长打能力退化，今年0HR，所以投手不怕他了。
以下为近四年的ISO:
Year: ISO
2009: 0.331
2010: 0.284
2011: 0.242
2012: 0.108
It would be nice to have Hit FX data to see exactly if he has been hitting
the ball weaker or in the air more. GameDay data, while not perfect, does
give us some clues that he is just not getting as much distance behind his
hits. Here are his 2011 and 2012 batted ball locations from texasleaguers.com:
我们来看看他的打击图，是否真的长打退化了。
以下为 2011 / 2012 的比较图，证明最近打击出去的球，落点真的离本垒板比较近了
2011:http://bit.ly/K8Gl5A / 2012: http://bit.ly/K13cAD
So far in 2012, Albert has not even put a ball near the warning track. To
further illustrate the point, here are the average distances of his fly balls
and home runs from 2010 to 2012 as taken from baseballheatmaps.com:
今年到目前为止，普砲连全垒打墙都沾不上边，
不信你看，以下为近三年的飞球距离平均:
Year: Distance
2010: 313 ft
2011: 303 ft
2012: 275 ft
One possible explanation for the drop in power this season is that he is not
yet familiar with the pitchers in the AL. MGL over at The Book Blog looked at
how hitters and pitchers did once they became more familiar with each other.
Here is his conclusion:
.. there is a large advantage to the batter when he has faced
a pitcher a lot in the last year.
Albert should expect to hit better as he becomes more familiar with the
pitchers in the AL.
把他解读成为，普砲对AL不熟吧。
研究指出，打者跟投手熟了之后，结论是 ..通常对打着的优势较高。
所以普砲跟美联投手熟了之后，应该会慢慢变回普神。
Albert is displaying a lack of power that has been trending down the last few
years. On top of the power decline, he is not walking as much even when IBB
are taken into account. I would not recommend selling on him just yet. He
should see an increase in production as he becomes more familiar with AL
pitching. It might be a time to see if his owners are getting impatient with
him and try to buy low.
这段在讲FB，跟MLB版旨无关我就不翻了