[情报] Playoff Odds

楼主: Homura (虎斑街猫˙Rebirth)   2011-06-29 22:06:28
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
Expected Win Pct Sim Win Sim Loss Div Pct WC Pct Playoff Pct
BOS .576 95.9 66.1 61.5% 33.5% 95.0%
NYY .567 93.9 68.1 36.6% 51.9% 88.5%
TBR .510 86.0 76.0 1.9% 11.8% 13.7%
BAL .497 76.5 85.5 0.0% 0.3% 0.3%
TOR .443 76.3 85.7 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Expected Win Pct Sim Win Sim Loss Div Pct WC Pct Playoff Pct
DET .523 86.5 75.5 65.8% 0.6% 66.4%
CWS .498 81.9 80.1 20.0% 0.7% 20.7%
CLE .465 80.5 81.5 12.5% 0.6% 13.1%
MIN .505 75.7 86.3 1.7% 0.1% 1.8%
KCR .397 66.3 95.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Expected Win Pct Sim Win Sim Loss Div Pct WC Pct Playoff Pct
TEX .528 85.3 76.7 72.5% 0.1% 72.6%
LAA .459 78.6 83.4 12.6% 0.1% 12.8%
OAK .509 78.7 83.3 11.7% 0.1% 11.9%
SEA .465 75.4 86.6 3.1% 0.1% 3.2%
Expected Win Pct Sim Win Sim Loss Div Pct WC Pct Playoff Pct
PHI .556 93.7 68.3 74.7% 17.7% 92.4%
ATL .559 89.4 72.6 24.6% 43.2% 67.8%
NYM .470 79.4 82.6 0.5% 2.1% 2.6%
FLA .515 77.2 84.8 0.1% 0.7% 0.8%
WAS .435 76.7 85.3 0.1% 0.5% 0.7%
Expected Win Pct Sim Win Sim Loss Div Pct WC Pct Playoff Pct
MIL .530 87.8 74.2 55.8% 6.4% 62.2%
STL .541 85.7 76.3 28.9% 9.2% 38.1%
CIN .526 83.3 78.7 14.2% 5.3% 19.5%
PIT .428 76.9 85.1 1.0% 0.4% 1.3%
CHC .476 73.2 88.8 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
HOU .406 61.0 101.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Expected Win Pct Sim Win Sim Loss Div Pct WC Pct Playoff Pct
SFG .531 92.0 70.0 88.9% 2.2% 91.1%
COL .536 82.4 79.6 6.2% 6.2% 12.4%
ARI .465 80.8 81.2 3.1% 3.5% 6.6%
LAD .482 79.7 82.3 1.8% 2.5% 4.2%
SD .487 73.1 88.9 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Expected Win Pct - 预期胜率
Sim Win - 模拟胜场数
Sim Loss - 模拟败场数
Div Pct - 分区冠军机率
WC Pct - 外卡机率
Playoff Pct - 季后赛机率
有两队被认为已经放寒假去了 - -
作者: x24627785 (旅は道连れ世は情け)   2011-06-29 22:08:00
蓝鸟教士不遑多让
作者: TrueTears (真实之泪)   2011-06-29 22:09:00
百年还有0.2%
作者: SlamKai (Calm Violence)   2011-06-29 22:09:00
马林鱼!
作者: keysoon (Carson)   2011-06-29 22:09:00
蛇也被看的太扁了吧...
作者: jet113102 (传说中的Yi)   2011-06-29 22:10:00
国西很难讲....
作者: mdfh (您真内行)   2011-06-29 22:12:00
水手输运动家...
作者: EstelleRinz (小艾)   2011-06-29 22:12:00
太空人和皇家表示:
作者: wazowski (ludan)   2011-06-29 22:14:00
Expected Pct. 是根据毕式公式出来的吗?
作者: todd7622 (状态显示为脑筋僵化)   2011-06-29 22:15:00
07、08年 Mets 99.9%不知道几个月了还不是没进季后赛XD
楼主: Homura (虎斑街猫˙Rebirth)   2011-06-29 22:16:00
季末大崩盘不是常态啊 XD
作者: wazowski (ludan)   2011-06-29 22:17:00
软豆腐与杰曼纽表示:......
作者: weakhsuan (科科)   2011-06-29 22:19:00
国东前两名怪怪的...
楼主: Homura (虎斑街猫˙Rebirth)   2011-06-29 22:19:00
Expected Pct.是季前预测 + 球季表现的综合数据
作者: weakhsuan (科科)   2011-06-29 22:21:00
了盖
作者: wazowski (ludan)   2011-06-29 22:21:00
国东前两名 只要考虑"季前"Uggla被预期带给斧军的火力,
作者: wazowski (ludan)   2011-06-29 22:23:00
以及 Werth 换成 Dom Brown 被预期造成的打击下修 不离谱
作者: notmuchmoney (真的不错....)   2011-06-29 22:54:00
好奇怪的WC Pct
作者: tanaka0826 (田中鬪莉王)   2011-06-29 23:01:00
HOU&KC XDD
作者: ohb (好胜的命运是失落)   2011-06-29 23:03:00
有没有原文连结啊?@@
作者: pawn001 (无名小卒)   2011-06-29 23:13:00
这个有没有算错= = 蓝鸟在金莺之后?
作者: jacky00766   2011-06-29 23:18:00
↑都是0点多% 好像没啥差= =
作者: Kitsu (天堂地狱)   2011-06-29 23:25:00
以为0.1%够惨的了 竟然还有0%的
作者: sarserror (阎罗煞)   2011-06-29 23:27:00
Werth换成DoMo应该是没什么差
作者: chemikelvin   2011-06-29 23:27:00
马林鱼还有0.8% XD
作者: labiron (labiron)   2011-06-30 01:50:00
小熊今年拿...
作者: Connec (康奈克)   2011-06-30 02:27:00
奖学金TT
作者: ueu72312 (躲在角落画圈圈)   2011-06-30 02:54:00
去买山羊
作者: kkboxreg01 (KK盒子)   2011-06-30 06:39:00
去年成绩跟今年来看Werth换成Domo差超多何况Domo又把打线左打化了

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