Re: [情报] Valuing Free Agents for 2011

楼主: nickyang (肌腱炎者少打字)   2010-12-09 10:36:27
※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之铭言:
: http://tinyurl.com/25ybkq
不配使用说明书太说不过去了XD
– These values are projected based on recent past performance.
价值的估算是奠基于过去的表现
– The estimates account for aging and league revenue growth.
有考虑年纪和联盟收入的成长
– These values are just for 2011. Over a longer term, value will diminish
with age, but increase with revenue growth. Revenue growth is stronger than
aging decline; therefore, even as players age their value tends to increase.
If a player signs a five-year contract, he will typically get more than
five-times the value projected in 2011.
这些价值只适用2011,长期来说球员价值随着年纪会降低,但是因为联盟的收入会成长
(Bernanke表示:让我证明你是错的!),造成的增值大过年纪造成的贬值。
因此即使球员变老了他们的价值还是会增加。
如果一个球员签下五年合约,大致而言他的真实价值会超过2011这个价值的五倍
(例如Huff的估算价值是11M,拿到22M/2yrs的合约,实际上球团是赚到的,因为
他在2012年的价值不止11M)
– Values assume the player signs with an average team. Players who sign with
winning teams are worth considerably more than their value to an average
team. Example: Clill Lee is worth nearly $10 million/year more to a top team
than an average team.
这个价值是假设签约对象是平均水准的球队,对于赢球的球队而言,这个价值要往上修
举例来说,Cliff Lee对强队的价值高过这个价值10M/year
作者: iammessiah ( )   2010-02-09 10:40:00
痛痛人表示: 那是洋基欠我的
作者: Anakin (Anakin)   2010-02-09 10:45:00
JC的估价方式没改的话,只是拿来当笑话看的吧?他说Francoeur 2008年值12M
作者: Anakin (Anakin)   2010-02-09 10:46:00
Pujols如果签8年值350M
楼主: nickyang (肌腱炎者少打字)   2010-02-09 10:48:00
我猜两个原因,一个是个别球员离群
作者: zwchih (风言风语)   2010-02-09 10:48:00
太夸张了吧 350M/8y? 那一年不就43M多 = =
楼主: nickyang (肌腱炎者少打字)   2010-02-09 10:49:00
另一个是球队收入在他模型里的角色
作者: abc12812   2010-02-09 10:54:00
这篇的短连结怎么会是连到某个动漫网页? @@
作者: tigertiger (虎虎)   2010-02-09 10:56:00
因为有一个字不一样 XD最后的a不见了
作者: x24627785 (旅は道连れ世は情け)   2010-02-09 11:16:00
动漫 也差太多 XDDDD
作者: tsming (断水流大师兄)   2010-02-10 23:19:00
方法没讲的话跟乱说有差吗XD

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