For better or worse, there are certain things pertaining to the Kansas City
Royals that we know for sure. We know that Zack Greinke is preposterously
good. We know that Joakim Soria and Billy Butler are solid players. We know
that David DeJesus, Alberto Callaspo, and Brayan Pena are competent, but
flawed. We know that the team will likely get at least 1,500 at bats from
sub-replacement level players.
Here are five things that we don’t know about the 2010 Royals.
不论如何.对皇家来说有些事是肯定的.
我们都知道魔神是夸张的威.我们都知道Joakim Soria跟Billy Butler都是很稳定的球员
我们都知道David DeJesus, Alberto Callaspo,以及Brayan Pena都是有一些缺点的好球
员
我们都知道这只球队至少有1500个打数是替补型球员在使用
这里.5件你不可不知道关于2010年的皇家队
1. What’s up with the enigmatic hitters?
Let’s leave aside the weirdness that is Rick Ankiel’s career path and the
fact that it would hardly surprise most observers if he hit .280/.340/.525
and secured a two-year deal from a contender or if he hit .220/.260/.330 and
spent the offseason contemplating life with the St. Paul Saints. Let’s also
leave aside the prospect of a dead cat bounce from Jose Guillen.
What I am getting to with this first question is that the Royals have an
interesting pair of third basemen who have confounded fans and analysts since
being first-round picks out of Big 12 college programs.
The story of Alex Gordon is pretty universally known at this point so I don’
t need to delve too far into it, which is good since others have talked about
it more eloquently than I could. But it really bears mentioning that all of
the hype that preceded him on his way to Kansas City was justified. He was
legitimately one of the top prospects in the 2005 draft after tearing up
college baseball for three years at Nebraska. He was legitimately on the
short list of best prospects in baseball after posting an OPS north of 1.000
in his first pro season with Double-A Wichita. But his name brings to mind
much suffering among fantasy owners and Royals fans. He has shown flashes of
being a significant offensive force in his time in western Missouri. But
since he was anointed as the golden child, the heir to George Brett’s
throne, he has struggled at the plate and in the field. He has had hip
surgery. And he has basically made Royals fans question their faith in the
baseball gods. It simply seems like he is a perpetual enigma at this point.
For some time now I have worried about Gordon falling into what I call the
Pat Burrell/Voltaire Effect. The theory is that at times when a player comes
to a city with unreasonably high expectations, sometimes it gets in the way
of the local populace's ability to appreciate what the player actually
becomes. “The perfect is the enemy of the good” runs amok. I name it after
Pat Burrell because I never really felt that Phillies fans got over the
expectations that came with him when he was a massive prospect. He was a
pretty good player during his time in Philly, but most of the attention was
focused on his weaknesses rather than his strengths and he was never
embraced. The other good example is JD Drew, who is loathed by fans in
multiple cities and has never really been appreciated for the high OBP and
good defense he provides. This is mainly because of the fact that he goes
through some extended power slumps and is almost assured of missing some time
every season. I worry that even if Alex Gordon does develop into his
generation’s Dean Palmer (a comp I have kind of liked for about 16 months
now), the fanbase will still be so stuck on his perception as the next Brett
that it will get in the way of their appreciation for what they actually have.
The other third baseman, Josh Fields, lacks the pedigree that Gordon brings,
but he is an interesting flier to take given that he is entering his age 27
season with two seasons between him and a campaign where he slugged 23 home
runs in 100 games with the White Sox. Let’s hope that a sense of obligation
to Guillen and Scott Podsednik doesn’t get in the way of the real work of
getting Fields enough reps to see what they actually have.
问题1.这些猜不透的打者怎么了?
让我们先把Rick Ankiel的传说摆到一边吧
事实上他的打击并不让大家感到兴奋.如果他打出了.280/.340/.525的三围.那么他或许
会在竞争中获得一份两年约.但如果是.220/.260/.330.那么他可能会在季后思考独立联
盟的生活
对了.还有人再期待Jose Guillen吗?
我第一个问题主要是问皇家三垒那一对宝.这两个昔日的第一轮让球迷跟专家都不知道谁
才是正统
Alex Gordon的故事应该无人不晓吧.那我就不说太多.他的好说不定大家都比我会说.但是
大家都在他皇家的一路上过份看好他.这对他来说是情有可原的.在内布拉斯加大学三年
里他横扫对手后.很合理地.让他在2005年是第一轮的热门.在2A他打完第一个职业球季缴
出OPS超过1.000的成绩.他也很合理的在潜力新秀的名单上
但是他的名字却让FB玩家以及皇家球迷痛苦.虽然他早早就在西密苏里展现他的攻击火力.
但自从大家帮他镀金.期待他是George Brett的王位继承人之后.他似乎在打击跟守备上有
点挣扎此外也动过屁屁手术
这让皇家迷想问问棒球之神.Gordon看起来像是个未解之谜
有时候我会怀疑Gordon陷入一种状况.我称之为Pat Burrell-伏尔泰效应
这理论是指当球员来到一个对他充满高度期待的城市.有时候这些当地人的赏识也许会阻
碍它的发展 "完美是够好的敌人"
我以Pat Burrell为名.是因为我从来没看过费城人对一个人有这样的高度期待.而且他又
是一名强力新秀.他在费城人是个好球员.但是大部分的焦点都放在他的缺点.而非他的力
量.他也从来不接受.另一个例子是JD Drew.他被许多城市球迷所讨厌.从来不会赏识它的
高上垒率以及好的守备.这是因为他的爆发力一直下滑.甚至几乎每季有时候会消失.
我担心就算Gordon发展成Dean Palmer.但fanbase网站还是会坚定他是下一个Brett.这就
会阻碍他们真正的发展
另一个三垒手Josh Fields.缺乏Gordon所拥有的皇家血统.但他是个有趣的空降部队.这是
他27岁的球季.2个球季前.他在白袜队100场比赛里敲出23轰..希望Guillen跟Podsednik能
有自知之明.别妨碍Fields的发展
2. What’s up with the enigmatic pitchers?
Let’s get beyond the fun of having the most sabermetrically friendly pitcher
in the game, and the question of whether Trey Hillman will ruin Gil Meche’s
arm, and the risk/reward involved with employing both Juan Cruz and Robinson
Tejeda.
What I am getting at with the second question deals with a pair of pitchers
that nobody can figure out. Everybody agrees that Hiram Kyle Davies has the
stuff to be a good major league pitcher, but 99 starts in, we still have no
idea whether he will ever figure it out enough to live up to his promise.
Luke Hochevar brought a similar kind of weirdness to the party and cranked it
up to 11 with what has been well documented as one of the stranger seasons in
recent memory. On the other hand both people and projection systems seem
pretty convinced that they know what he is and that what he is happens to be
a decent, but not great mid-rotation, worm-killing innings sponge. That seems
reasonable to me.
In the end, this is probably less important than the first question given
that the organization has a tide of legitimate starting pitching prospects
filtering up through the system, highlighted by Aaron Crow and Michael
Montgomery, both of whom may be knocking on Kauffman Stadium’s door by the
end of the season.
问题2.这些猜不透的投手怎么了?
让我们先高兴一下拥有数据派代表的投手(Brian Bannister).并且询问一下Hillman是否
摧残Meche的手臂.还有继续使用Juan Cruz和Robinson Tejeda是危机还是转机呢?
没有人可以理解我这第二个问题是在说另一对宝吧
大家都同意Kyle Davies有成为优秀大联盟投手的特质吧..但是给了几百次机会.我们仍
然不知道他是否会突然开窍实现他的承诺
Hochevar对皇家来说.也相当诡异甚至更严重.应该会缴出很好的成绩.但却是个充满问号
的一季
另一方面这对宝跟预测系统看起来似乎都让大家知道这他们极限在哪.却只是个不怎么好
的中段轮值.吃局数的投手.这或许比较合理
最后.这个重要性次于第一个问题所给的.球队有一个未来轮值的方向.备受重视的Aaron
Crow以及Michael Montgomery.那么这两个人有谁会在季后被踢出皇家球场呢.
3. What’s up with the enigmatic prospects?
Ignoring the inherent dangers involved with having the majority of your farm
system’s best fruit fighting the ever looming threat of TINSTAAPP and the
fact that the system’s best up-the-middle prospect going down with Tommy
John surgery before we were even a third of the way through March, one thing
that bears watching in 2010 on the farm is how a pair of high first rounders
perform in their attempts to rebound from disappointing 2009 seasons.
Mike Moustakas went from being the 13th ranked prospect in the game according
to Baseball America to being fourth in the Royals organization after he
posted a sub-.300 OBP and confirmed the worries of scouts about his body type
and his ability to stay on the left side of the infield.
Eric Hosmer showed a selective eye at the plate, but hit for very little
power and the Royals actually had problems finding him a pair of prescription
glasses.
Still, both players were top 3 picks very recently, and nobody called them
overdrafts at the time. There are plenty of believers.
问题3.这些猜不透的新秀又怎么了?
忽视内在的危险.包括在享用农场培养出的大物时该考虑到TINSTAAPP的潜在威胁.还有就
目前过完三分之一的三月为止农场前段班到中段班新秀都动过TJ手术
2010年农场里的观点就是这一对第一轮高顺位的新秀要怎么从失望的09年触底反弹
Mike Moustakas
曾经是BA新秀排名第13的新秀.在他只缴出.300上垒率后.目前在皇家农场只名列第四.球
探们都觉得他的体格不适合待在内野左半边
Eric Hosmer
有选球眼.但力量小.球团确实需要帮他找更符合的眼镜
他们都是近几年前3轮的新秀.但是当时却没有人说他们顺位过高.可见当时大家都瞎了
4. How much difference does a medical staff make?
There was a lot of discussion in 2009 about the competence of the Royals'
medical staff and about management’s ability to make reasonable decisions
regarding the well being of their players. Beyond the issue of Hosmer’s
eyesight, there were multiple examples of decisions that were easily second
guessed by careful observers. Things came to a head with Rany Jazayerli being
deemed persona non grata among the Royals front office.
In the offseason, the medical staff has been rebuilt with new head trainer
Nick Kenney being imported from the Cleveland organization. With the Royals
roster currently being a classic example of the stars and scrubs concept,
injuries to Greinke, Soria and Butler are the kinds of things that keep
Royals fans up at night and could make the already tenuous situation look
even worse.
问题4.组一只医龙队有多大的不同?
在2009年有许多讨论有关皇家医龙队的能力还有队球员的决策管理能力.有关Hosmer的视
力议题.当时有许多的例子决策可以让观察者容易猜测情状.(这里看不太懂 @@)
在休季时.医龙队改造新的头部训练员.来自克里夫兰的Nick Kenney.塑造第一流的球星跟
营造思想.Greinke, Soria and Butler受伤时可以保持跟球迷之间的距离.让他们在无力
的状态下也能面对
5. What kind of a “process” involves stacking the roster with flotsam like
Jason Kendall, Scott Podsednik, Yuniesky Betancourt, Willie Bloomquist, and
Jose Guillen?
Following the Royals requires a certain amount of blind optimism. Otherwise,
you really do run the risk of searching for a tall bridge to jump off of or
simply turning your attention to the Wizards by June 1. I am as prone to
buying into idiosyncratic ideas as anybody. But it seems that nobody who pays
an even marginal amount of attention to baseball can really understand how
something like this happens. There are good things happening on the farm and
there are some interesting sleepers on the ML roster. But Dayton Moore’s
taste in veteran players stinks.
问题5.收集一堆鸡肋(像Jason Kendall,Scott Podsednik,Yuniesky Betancourt,
Willie Bloomquist和Jose Guillen)的目的是?
跟随皇家队.你需要无比的乐观
否则.你就危险了.就像是找做高桥跳下去或是在6月1号时转移注意力在巫师身上
我倾向购买任何有特色的球员.但.看起来没有任何注意棒球的人了解.为何这种事会发生
对农场来说是好事.在大联盟名单里令人感兴趣的人说不定会突然爆走.但重点是Dayton
Moore热爱老将的臭味