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这篇是来全球台湾研究中的文章 过去台湾层峰都会接见他们
Nils Peterson拿马歇尔奖学金在现于伦敦大学亚非学院（SOAS）读台湾研究的硕士
https://globaltaiwan.org/2025/09/learning-from-tsai/
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标题: Learning from Tsai: Energy Policy Lessons for the Lai Administration
吸取蔡政府经验：给赖清德政府的能源政策借镜
chatgpt 懒人包
1. 气候绩效指标(CCPI)排名长年吊车尾
2016 年台湾在 61 国中第 52；2025 年在 67 国中第 60。
“Taiwan ranked 52nd out of 61 countries… in 2016… placing 60th out of 67
countries in the 2025 CCPI.”
2. 两大提问：检验蔡政府、给赖政府的功课
要评估 2016 以来政府推动绿能的效果，并提出赖政府未来三年的解方。
"These questions include: 1) How effectively has the… supported the country's
move to renewable energy since 2016? And 2) How can the Lai Administration address… over the next three years?“
3. 蔡政府目标与长期承诺
提出“20-30-50”配方（2025 年：再生 20%、燃煤 30%、天然气 50%），并宣示 2050
净零与 2022 年《路径蓝图》。
"the ‘20-30-50 formula.’… achieve net-zero… by 2050… released its
action plan… ‘Taiwan’s Pathway to Net-Zero Emissions in 2050."
4. 关键法规改革（市场开放＋碳定价）
三修《电业法》（绿电直售、绿电市场自由化），修《温管法》为《气候变迁因应法》（
碳费／碳定价），吸引如 Google 等用电大户采购绿电。
"amended the Electricity Act… allow(ed) direct sales of green energy…
companies like Google to purchase renewable energy… amending the… Act
created a carbon pricing system…“
5. 目标未达成：绿能不足、燃煤偏高 https://i.meee.com.tw/MLUWa2w.png
任期结束前未把发电结构带到“20-30-50“轨道；图示显示再生能源不足、燃煤过高。
“the Tsai Administration failed to achieve its 20-30-50 formula… a lack of
renewable energy and over reliance on coal… contributed to this
unsatisfactory outcome."
6. 主因一：再生能源扩张太慢；主因二：用能需求持续增长
2003 以来年均能源消费成长 0.41%；2024 年总需求比 2016 年高 3.35%。在供给增速不
够快的情况下更难达标。
“Taiwan has averaged 0.41 percent growth… since 2003… In 2024, Taiwan’s
total energy demand was 3.35 percent higher than… 2016…“
7. 外资不足＋被排除于国际能源机制
要达 2025 年 20% 再生能源，2024 年发电量需“加倍“；亟需风场扩建与外资。台湾
非 OECD/IEA 成员，无法充分参与 Clean Energy Ministerial／Energy Efficiency
Hub 的协作与资料共享。
“Taiwan needs to double its 2024 renewable energy… One possible solution is
to construct more wind farms… Taiwan is not a member of the OECD… therefore
is not associated with the IEA… hosts the Clean Energy Ministerial… Energy
Efficiency Hub…“
8. 赖政府两大难题：用电飙升＋核能政治拉扯
AI/资料中心推升 2024–2033 年年增 2.8%；民进党失去国会多数，国民党＋民众党主张
核能必要，与民进党反核传统牴触。
“drive a 2.8 percent increase in energy consumption every year through 2033
… the KMT has allied with the TPP to control the Legislative Yuan… embraced
the view that nuclear power was a necessary component…“
9. 公私协力扩大储能与绿能建设
双路并行的储能策略——大型储能（如 Hornsdale、Moss Landing）＋“虚拟电池/虚拟
电厂“（户用储能释出尖峰容量），以平抑再生能源间歇性、强化备援。
“two options for… energy storage… megapack solutions… South Australia’s
Hornsdale… California’s Moss Landing… virtual batteries… lease small
portions of their battery storage to the grid…“
10. 一句话总结（Main Point）
蔡政府定下积极目标但未把盘面铺到可在 2025 年达标；赖政府将面临更快的用电成长与
核能之争，应以公私协力加速发电与储能建设。
“The Tsai Administration set an ambitious ‘20-30-50 formula’… it had not
positioned Taiwan to achieve this objective… The Lai Administration now faces
… rising electricity demand and political friction… prepare to generate
joint public-private investment… in… generation and storage capabilities.