楼主:
Yjizz (饶惹偶ㄚ激湿)
2025-09-20 14:05:36MLB 季后赛晋级趋势
(x=晋级季后赛 y=分区冠军 WCGB=外卡差 STRK=连胜/败场)
(DIV分区冠军, POST季后赛, LDS/LCS/WS分区/联盟/世界大赛 获胜机率-Fangraph)
(后面季后赛机率有多组模型 且为变动 仅取一组供参考)
AL NEXT WIN WIN WIN WIN
LEADERS W L W% WCGB L10 STRK GAME DIV POST LDS LCS WS
蓝鸟-E 89 65 .578 - 6-4 L3 @ 皇家 92.1% 100.0% 45.0% 22.4% 10.7%
水手-W 85 69 .552 - 9-1 W2 @ 鼓人 75.0% 99.0% 48.8% 27.9% 15.4%
老虎-C 85 69 .552 - 3-7 L4 vs 勇士 83.5% 93.0% 28.0% 12.3% 5.7%
AL
WILD NEXT WIN WIN WIN WIN
CARD W L W% WCGB L10 STRK GAME DIV POST LDS LCS WS
洋基 86 68 .558 +2.0 6-4 L1 @ 金鸟 7.6% 99.5% 34.2% 19.2% 10.9%
红袜 84 70 .545 - 5-5 W1 vs 光芒 0.3% 88.0% 18.6% 8.3% 3.7%
鼓人 84 70 .545 - 6-4 L1 vs 水手 25.0% 84.6% 19.6% 8.0% 3.3%