→ polanco: 滚地球一颗球就解决打者比较有效率 三振至少要三颗 好怀03/29 18:02
→ polanco: 念这种迷思喔 03/29 18:02
其实三振多用球数会上升并不是迷思
BP在很久以前就有做过统计
https://tinyurl.com/2dn63ruy
While both Boyd and I are working from large enough datasets that any number
of things turn out to be statistically significant, the degree to which they
improve the accuracy of the estimate is marginal. The three components listed
here–batters faced, strikeouts, walks–are substantially more important than
any other. The next most important predictor of pitch counts, interestingly,
is groundball-to-flyball ratio. Groundball pitchers, all else being equal,
generally throw somewhat fewer pitchers per hitter than flyballers...
Not that this is rocket science–the point is that pitch counts aren’t any
great mystery. The more batters you face, the more pitches you throw; the
heavier you are on strikeouts and (especially) walks, the more pitches you
throw per batter.
影响用球数最大的三大要素是打席数 三振数 保送数
愈多打席/三振/保送 用球数就愈高
而滚球投手一般来说用球数可以比飞球投手精简
事实上也确实有投手能以鸟打省球的策略攻击打者
例如Maddux就说过他的策略就是投给打者打鸟打 不强求三振
现在追求三振的风气会盛行 一部份原因是魔球推动了用K/BB评量投手的风气
这模型固然简单易操作 但也造成过去以制造鸟滚为主的投球策略被低估的状况
要说以前的投给打者打的策略是杀猪公并不公允